The Warriors were something of a boogeyman for the Rockets for several seasons back during the golden age of Golden State’s dynasty in the mid-to-late 2010s. That rivalry was renewed two playoffs ago when the Dubs downed an up-and-coming Houston squad in the first round, but even with the changes to the rosters on both sides of this matchup, Steph Curry continues to haunt the H-Town fandom. Tonight, these teams meet for the first time this season in a duel between Western Conference postseason hopefuls.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Warriors vs. Rockets matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Warriors vs. Rockets prediction, preview
The Warriors opened the season in poor form with three straight losses, but they’re now the NBA’s hottest team and haven’t dropped a game since. They sit 8-3 with eight consecutive wins and have climbed to fifth in NETRTG at +9.2. The offense is humming with 120.4 PPG, second most in the league to go along with the No. 2 OFFRTG. Steph Curry is still incredible despite his age with 30.6 points and 4.3 assists per game but he’s had support in rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, who’s posting 21.4 points with 7.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists. They’ve become a dynamic duo complemented by Brandin Podziemski, who’s in the midst of a breakout with 16.8 PPG of his own. There are a pair of other double-digit scorers, and it should be noted that Golden State is elite in terms of efficiency – the club’s 47.7% FG% ranks fourth and their 40.3% 3P% ranks first. The Dubs are also second in assists per game with 29.0, so this is a well-oiled machine on that side of the ball. Defensively, they’re allowing 111.2 PPG and are 11th in DEFRTG, falling 14th in rebounding with 44.3 boards a night.
On the injury report, Brandon Williams is out, leaving Golden State without his 10.4 PPG. Moses Moody and Gary Payton II are the other rotation pieces missing beyond Jimmy Butler (and Kristaps Porzingis, who is not with the team).
The Rockets don’t have any pieces of those rosters that used to match up with Curry at his peak, but they emerged from their rebuild ahead of schedule over the last couple of years and are looking like real threats for a deep playoff run. They’re 8-3 with the No. 4 NETRTG at +9.4, playing one of the toughest schedules of any team thus far. The offense is quite good with 115.5 PPG but the sixth-best OFFRTG, bringing great efficiency with the fifth-best FG% (47.6%) and the seventh-best 3P% (37.5%). Alperen Sengun leads the team in all three major categories with 21.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game, while costar Kevin Durant – a former teammate of Curry’s – averages 21.0 PPG. Jabari Smith Jr. is in a breakout of his own with 17.0 PPG on a 44.8% 3P%, while Amen Thompson and Fred VanVleet both pitch in double-digit points with some tertiary production. Houston’s defense does remain tenacious, too, ranking eighth in DEFRTG and allowing 106.4 PPG, fifth fewest. The club also ranks 13th in rebounding with 44.5 boards a night and fifth in blocks with 5.8.
The biggest name missing for the Rockets is Steven Adams, who remains out tonight alongside fellow center Clint Capela.
Warriors vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as a 6.5-point favorite at home tonight with -264 odds on the Moneyline. The Warriors are a +217 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 219.5 combined points.
This should be a very tight contest between two of the Western Conference’s best squads. With that in mind, the 6.5-point spread feels like something Golden State is absolutely capable of covering in this spot. The Warriors have been incredible since shaking off their early losing streak and fully have momentum on their side. Curry is playing some of the best ball of his career even at 38 years old and Lendeborg is a rookie sensation, providing a much-needed second option next to the aging superstar. This team is also 3-2 ATS as an underdog and 8-3 ATS overall on the season. They’re playing extremely competitive ball and won’t go down without a fight, even on the road against a well-rounded Houston rotation. It’s rare to get a team with this much momentum as an outright dog by this margin, so taking Golden State to cover just makes sense.
