When the Nations League group draw was released, Group 3 looked like a powerhouse. Fresh off a World Cup title, Spain was set to clash with England, who finished third in that competition. On top of that, we got a Croatian side that has been successful on the world stage and has plenty of talent. It looked like a bloodbath of competitive group-stage play. Unfortunately, Croatia’s golden generation has not answered the bell, having suffered three straight defeats to England and Spain by a combined 13-2 margin. Can they save their Nations League campaign with three points at Wembley? Or will the Brits roll them over and secure a playoff spot?
At DraftKings Sportsbook, England are -425 favorites, with a draw priced at +475. Croatia is set at +900 to spring the upset.
England vs. Croatia Pick, Best Bet
It’s hard to overstate how much of a beatdown the first fixture between these two sides was. England’s 7-0 win was the worst defeat in Croatian history and extended the Three Lions’ winning streak against the Checkered Ones to four games. Jude Bellingham racked up three goal involvements in the first half alone as they roared to a 4-0 lead, and Ballon d’Or winner Harry Kane bagged a brace in a shocking final result. It’s a sign that the transition from longtime manager Zlatko Dalić is not going well for the Croatians.
Two Nations League rounds ago, they went all the way to the final, and Spain needed penalty kicks to claim victory in 2023. In 2024/25, Croatia qualified from a tough group and took France to penalties in the quarterfinals. This time around, they’re on the cusp of being sent to the relegation zone. It’s a major fall from grace, and their defeat to England felt like the true low point.
The players have to step up and rally for Croatia. Luka Modric has only so many games left in his international career, and he’s not the only player nearing the end of his international career. Ante Budimir, Ivan Perišić, and Andrej Kramaric all join Modric in the 35-and-over club, and might be on their swan song. If they can work in concert with young rising talents like Luka Vušković, Joško Gvardiol, Josip Stanišić, Martin Baturina, and Petar Sučić, this group can find some success.
All eyes are on the Croatian back line for this one. Facing one of the best attacks in the world is hard enough; to make matters worse, they’ll do it shorthanded. Josip Šutalo, one of their starting center backs, is injured. A potential backup, Marin Pongračić, is out as well. That could force them to move Gvardiol inside next to Vušković and start Šimun Hrgović on the left side, or throw Duje Ćaleta-Carr into action. That’s a tough proposition for Croatia either way.
England will hope for a business-as-usual match. Blowing a 2-1 second-half lead to Spain in the opening match was a disappointment, but they’ve stormed back, winning three straight against Czechia and Croatia by a combined 12-0 margin. If they can run the table against the bottom two, their spot in the playoff will be secured, and they’ll have a final match with Spain to decide the group.
Thomas Tuchel’s experiment with England continues to thrive. He’s getting a ton of attacking production from Kane, Bellingham, Morgan Rogers, Bukayo Saka, and Anthony Gordon. It all starts in midfield, where Elliot Anderson and Myles Lewis-Skelly are getting outstanding minutes; it’s amazing to have this kind of possession play without Declan Rice in the lineup. Defense is going to be a question mark going forward with Marc Guehi’s injury, but they have depth to tap into on the back line, and a top-rate goalkeeper in Jordan Pickford.
England’s defensive concerns are real, but that’s a problem for later matches. Croatia’s attack has been disappointing lately, and with their back line showing real weaknesses, this should be another dominant effort for the Three Lions. Count on a high-scoring win to clinch their spot in the quarterfinals.
