This one is for all the marbles in UEFA Nations League Group A. France are 3-1-0 in group-stage play, with 10 points to lead the group and two matches to play. If they pick up three points on Thursday, they’ll put a bow on the group and get a chance to cycle the lineup for the last match. But Italy are three points behind them and keen to build important momentum in Europe. It’s a matchup with a lot of history, and a new chapter will be written on Thursday.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, France are -135 favorites to win within 90 minutes, with a draw priced at +275. Italy’s moneyline is set at +320.
Italy vs. France Pick, Best Bet
This has been quite a mercurial decade for Italy on the world stage. They failed to qualify for both the 2022 and 2026 World Cups, a shock result that has led them to reevaluate their program from top to bottom. That’s quite the fall for a team that won Euro 2020. Now they’ve placed Roberto Mancini at the helm, who coached the team from 2018 to 2023 and captured that Euro title. The Nations League is a great place to pick up momentum for the upcoming Euro 2028 cycle, with an eye on the 2030 World Cup.
Results in this group stage are concerningly mixed so far. They’ve pulled all six points from their matches with Turkiye, which is an important step, and pulled a draw against France in their first meeting. But they lost the first match 2-0 to Belgium in Mancini’s return to the squad, and the reverse fixture is due after this France tie. A lot more than the title is on the line here; with the Belgians only one point behind, bad results in these two fixtures could put the Azzurri in the relegation zone.
Italy has been the only blip on France’s radar through the group stage. In their first tournament since appointing French legend Zinedine Zidane to the top spot, a strong result is crucial. They beat Turkiye once and Belgium twice, with a combined 6-1 margin, looking like the powerhouse team we saw at the 2026 World Cup. But that draw against Italy left the group up for grabs, and three points here are the only way to clinch the group and earn some rest for Sunday’s match with Turkiye.
The first matchup came down to Italy’s superstar goalkeeper, Gianluigi Donnarumma. He piled up seven saves in the 1-1 tie, facing 2.48 expected goals on target. That excellent goal prevention was just enough to get the job done, as the Italians capitalized on a loose ball in the French box to find the equalizer. The Italian attack didn’t look inspired, and the French will feel like they let one slip away.
France’s back line against the Italian attack will be fascinating. Both sides are using this tournament to rotate in players who don’t see many minutes in bigger tournaments; France is using guys like Jéremy Jacquet and Leny Yoro, future fixtures on the team, to test their readiness. Italy is handing the reins to young Inter Milan star Francesco Pio Esposito, who has taken the lion’s share of minutes as a striker. They’re also giving significant minutes to Moise Kean and Sebastiano Esposito. The midfield and back line remain steady, but the team needs to do more up top, and Mancini is making his feelings known.
It’s nice to see Italy being invigorated by Mancini’s return and looking competitive in Europe once again. But the French have produced better results in the group stage while rotating most of the squad, and will lock in for this match with the group on the line. Even at this price, a French victory is a value.
