Arkansas tore through Arkansas-Pine Bluff 106-61 on Tuesday, piling up 45 fast-break points. Virginia arrives 2-0 after beating Drexel 89-60 and Northeastern 97-72. Now the Razorbacks meet the Cavaliers on a neutral floor, with Arkansas getting 3.5 points. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college basketball game between the Virginia Cavaliers and the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Virginia vs. Arkansas prediction, preview
Arkansas guard Jeremiah Wilkinson buried four of seven threes while scoring 23 points in the opener. Freshman backcourt partner Jordan Smith Jr. added 20, and together they collected eight steals. The Razorbacks forced 24 turnovers overall. Wilkinson gives them a shooter who can punish Virginia after the Cavaliers retreat and set their defense; Arkansas can also score before Virginia’s big men get back.
Virginia has been generous with those opportunities, committing 14 turnovers in each win. Sophomore point guard Chance Mallory responded to six giveaways against Drexel with 20 points, five assists and one turnover Friday. Starting guard Sam Lewis, however, surrendered the ball six times against Northeastern. Arkansas can hunt mistakes throughout the backcourt, although Mallory’s improvement makes another avalanche of turnovers a risky expectation.
Virginia forward Thijs De Ridder can make Arkansas pay when the game settles down. He has scored 40 points on 16-of-24 shooting through two games, including three makes in five attempts from deep. At 6-foot-9 and 246 pounds, De Ridder can lean on Arkansas’ big men inside and still draw one away from the rim with his jumper. Virginia coach Ryan Odom should play through him early.
Arkansas vs. Virginia pick, best bet
Arkansas freshman forward Miikka Muurinen picked up four fouls in 18 minutes against UAPB; center Cooper Bowser had three in 16. Alongside 7-foot center Johann Grünloh, De Ridder also gives Virginia the size to pursue second chances: the Cavaliers grabbed 13 offensive rebounds against Drexel and 11 against Northeastern. Arkansas coach John Calipari needs his frontcourt to finish those defensive possessions without fouling.
I expect Virginia to get the better shots in the half court, with De Ridder doing much of the damage. Arkansas should turn enough steals into layups to stay close, though. At +3.5, I’m backing the Razorbacks’ guards to disrupt Virginia’s offense while Wilkinson supplies the shooting to answer at the other end.
Best bet: Arkansas +3.5 (-115).
Projected score: Virginia 82, Arkansas 80.
