New Orleans comes out of its bye with left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. and rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson back on the active roster, giving quarterback Tyler Shough some badly needed help if they are ready to play. The Saints have also waived running back Kendre Miller. Cleveland arrives at the Superdome for its third straight road game with quarterback Shedeur Sanders making his first start of the season. Previous starter Deshaun Watson has cleared the concussion protocol, but Sanders took the first-team preparation and retains the assignment. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Cleveland Browns.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Saints vs. Browns prediction, preview
Saints coach Kellen Moore still needs his line to move defenders on a handoff. New Orleans has rushed for just 86 yards per game, leaving Shough to work through too many possessions without useful gains on the ground. Cleveland has allowed 4.68 yards per rush and just conceded 200 rushing yards to Pittsburgh; defensive tackle Maliek Collins is now out. Running back Alvin Kamara gets a weakened interior rotation to attack. New Orleans has to block considerably better to exploit it.
Kamara has cleared the injury report, but Moore has Audric Estimé and newly elevated Zamir White available as well. Their division of work remains unsettled. Banks’ activation helps the protection options without guaranteeing his usual workload; he and Tyson remain questionable. Shough has averaged only 6.3 yards per attempt this season. Against Browns edge rusher Jared Verse, wasting first downs would put even more pressure on a left side still working through its availability.
Receiver Chris Olave can give Shough a substantial gain before that pressure closes. Cleveland plays Cover 1 on 44.2% of dropbacks, and Olave has averaged 3.34 yards per route against it. Browns cornerback Denzel Ward has allowed just 128 yards across 303 coverage snaps, so Moore should use motion to help Olave escape a static matchup. Tyson’s possible debut adds another receiver to account for; I’m allowing for a limited contribution. Olave’s ten targets against Pittsburgh establish whom Shough already seeks out.
Browns vs. Saints pick, best bet
Cleveland coach Todd Monken can ease Sanders into the game through running back Quinshon Judkins and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. The Saints have allowed backs 2.58 adjusted yards before contact per carry, second-most, giving Judkins a chance to recover from 25 yards on 11 attempts at Pittsburgh. Fannin caught ten passes for 154 yards as Cleveland chased Pittsburgh in a 21-point loss. His previous work with Sanders is useful, too: he averaged 51.5 receiving yards in six starts in last season’s offense. New Orleans has allowed tight ends 68.4 yards per game. Sanders has somewhere useful to unload if protection breaks down.
The Browns have surrendered 33 sacks, so Monken needs Judkins gaining ground before Sanders starts throwing to catch up. Judkins has taken every Cleveland goal-line carry since fellow back Dylan Sampson returned in Week 7; New Orleans has left enough room for him to reach those chances. I’m taking over 42.5 at -108. Sanders’ sacks are the risk I’m accepting, with Judkins facing a more inviting front and Kamara getting Cleveland’s thinner rotation in return. I expect both backs to help their quarterbacks sustain enough possessions to reach the 20s.
Best bet: Over 42.5 (-108)
Projected score: Saints 24, Browns 21.
