Generally I publish this article earlier in the week, but not much jumped out to me in NFL Week 9. I’ll probably come back and add a play for MNF on Monday, but here’s the light card that I’m rolling with on Sunday.
Let’s breakdown some NFL Week 9 best bets.
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1pm ET)
The Dolphins don’t have a very deep arsenal of weapons on offense, but the ball has to go somewhere. Greg Dulcich has been one of the guys stepping up recently. He’s topped 37 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including 86 yards against the Jets and 43 yards against the Patriots on a combined 11 targets over the past two outings.
But the key here is the matchup against a Detroit defense that’s been historically poor defending the TE position. The Lions are allowing opposing tight ends to average nearly nine receptions for just under 98 yards per game! That’s by far the worst in the NFL. Tight ends are scoring 1.57 touchdowns per game on this defense as well, so if you want to look at Dulcich to score, that could be in play too.
I’m going to stick to the yardage here. The Dolphins should be throwing to keep up with this Detroit offense, and the matchup plays right into Dulcich’s hands to rack up some yards.
NFL Pick: Greg Dulcich O39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday 4:05pm ET)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
I like the spots for Houston and Seattle a bit this week, and the price on a moneyline parlay is playable. The Texans are off a bye, following the loss to the Giants. At 2-5 this is do-or-die week, and they get the winless Chargers. Los Angeles is a doormat at this point. I don’t see Justin Herbert and company getting it together, and they should struggle against Houston’s defense. C.J. Stroud and the offense have been fine, and now had the bye to work in all the new receiving options.
Seattle got thrashed at home in primetime by the Bears. Chicago is super impressive, so I’m not going to dock Seattle too much. I also like that Drew Lock is at quarterback in this game. It cut the price on the Seahawks significantly, but I don’t see any downgrade. Lock has been better at avoiding sacks and turnovers, while getting the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba just as easily as Sam Darnold. Arizona got a wild comeback win over the Cowboys, but the Gardner Minshew magic may run out here. The Cardinals face a tough defense on the road, looking to bounce back.
NFL Pick: Texans/Seahawks Moneyline Parlay (-130)
