Week 9 means that we’re officially at the halfway mark of the NFL regular season. The playoff race is taking shape as the trade deadline nears next week, so expect a flurry of action in the coming days. For the moment, though, we have a full slate of games across the Sunday schedule. The matchup might not generate much excitement, but the Lions are poised to hang plenty of points on the Dolphins when they meet in the early window.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Lions vs. Dolphins in NFL Week 9.
Lions vs. Dolphins prediction, preview
The Lions are beginning to pick up steam after winning three straight games – two of which came against NFC North foes – and are now 5-2 on the campaign. While they’ve scored just 20 and 19 points over the last two weeks, this offense will be what powers them to victory most weeks with an average of 29.0 PPG and the sixth-best EPA/play in football. The passing attack is formidable as always with Jared Goff throwing to the trio of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, ranking fifth in EPA/dropback. However, St. Brown is questionable with a rib issue, so perhaps the other two will need to pick up the slack. In any case, Jahmyr Gibbs remains one of the three best running backs in the sport as well, so this high-powered attack shouldn’t have any issues scoring on an easier opponent than they’ve seen in the last couple of weeks. The defense is notably weaker, conceding 25.7 PPG and tumbling to 30th in EPA/play allowed. Injuries have also piled up, with LB Jack Campbell, EDGE DJ Wonnum, and DBs Kerby Joseph and D.J. Reed all ruled out for this contest. Still, Miami poses much less of a threat than most other teams – Detroit can survive without those names.
The Dolphins began a rebuild this offseason, and the results have largely reflected that decision. They’re 1-6 on the season but did pick up their first win in Week 7 against the Jets, for what it’s worth. Still, we know what to expect from this team for now – underwhelming play on both sides of the ball. The offense brings a paltry 16.7 PPG and falls 23rd in EPA/play, though they’re ninth in explosive play rate. Notably, Malik Willis struggled under center for much of the campaign but has thrown multiple touchdowns with a 65.0% completion rate or better in each of the last two games. His top targets are Malik Washington and Caleb Douglas, but the run game remains central to this team’s identity rather than the pass. Ollie Gordon has impressed over the last few weeks with 69+ rushing yards in each of his last four games, scoring three times over this span, too. Miami’s defense allows 25.9 PPG, but is worse when it comes to the efficiency metrics at 31st in EPA/play allowed and dead last in EPA/dropback allowed. If it’s any consolation, the run defense is solid at 11th in EPA/rush allowed, but it hasn’t been enough to turn the outlook around.
Lions vs. Dolphins pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Lions were a -6.5 favorite on the road with -310 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Dolphins were a +250 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 49.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sure, St. Brown may not play for Detroit and the defense is pretty understaffed based on the rest of the injury report. The 6.5-point spread feels far too narrow given the quality of both of these teams, though. The ceiling for the Lions is sky-high and their offense will still be one of the best to take any field this week, even if their star wideout doesn’t suit up. Frankly, there’s a case for him to sit in an easier matchup in order to get healthy for the stretch run, but that’s neither here nor there. Miami ranks 23rd in PPG allowed but has given up 30+ points twice on the year against the 49ers and Bengals. Ask yourself this – is the Lions’ offense on par with those?
The answer to that question is a resounding yes. Detroit is ninth in EPA/rush allowed and should be able to limit the opposing run game’s effectiveness here, which is especially notable since Miami is dead last in PROE. I expect a full-on blowout behind an offensive explosion from the Lions, whether that comes through the air or on the ground.
