Florida’s quarterbacks gave the Gators very little chance against Georgia. Aaron Philo threw two early interceptions, Tramell Jones Jr. took over and turned it over twice himself, and Florida stumbled to eight points. Jones is expected to start against Oklahoma, though coach Jon Sumrall has left room for Philo to play. Across the field, tight ends coach Jason Witten takes over Oklahoma’s play-calling after the Sooners fired Ben Arbuckle. Both offenses have reached November looking for somebody to restore a little order. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Florida Gators and the Oklahoma Sooners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Florida vs. Oklahoma prediction, preview
Jones did exactly that at Texas. He threw for a modest 155 yards, ran for 41 and helped Florida possess the ball for more than 38 minutes in a 27–24 win. Back Jadan Baugh carried 25 times for 91 yards, and tight end Lacota Dippre caught both of Jones’ touchdown passes. Florida converted eight of 11 third downs after halftime. The Gators were patient, productive and far less obliging about giving the opponent the ball.
Oklahoma can make that patience difficult to sustain. The Sooners rank third in adjusted success rate allowed and have held opponents to 28.2% on third down. Florida is missing right tackle Emeka Ugorji, its starter in all eight games, with leading receiver Bailey Stockton questionable and Vernell Brown III doubtful. Baugh can help Jones through first down, but the Gators just managed 48 rushing yards against Georgia. Jones could again need to release the ball quickly behind a line trying to accommodate a replacement tackle.
Witten inherits an offense that has squandered far too many chances to score. Oklahoma averages 1.60 points per competitive FBS drive and has finished only 16.7% with touchdowns. Quarterback John Mateer has started all eight games, though coach Brent Venables has left the decision open. Mateer threw for 283 yards on 29 attempts at Mississippi State, a much healthier afternoon than the South Carolina game in which Oklahoma accumulated 241 of its 359 team yards in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma vs. Florida pick, best bet
Florida can give Witten somewhere to start. The Gators have allowed 2.91 points per competitive FBS drive and rank 88th in adjusted EPA per pass allowed. Oklahoma center Jake Maikkula is off the injury report, and tight end Rocky Beers is probable after catching four touchdowns this season. With Florida missing defensive tackle Jeramiah McCloud and linebacker Jaden Robinson, Witten has reason to work through Beers. Gators sack leader Emmanuel Oyebadejo is questionable, too. The Sooners should get some chances to throw before Florida’s rush reaches the quarterback.
I’ll take Oklahoma +6.5. Florida can win through Baugh and Jones, particularly if Oklahoma repeats the defensive lapses that let South Carolina drive for six touchdowns. The Gators’ protection and receiver uncertainty make it hard to expect a comfortable second-half lead, though. Oklahoma has a better chance to complete the shorter throws with Maikkula and Beers trending back, and enough defensive quality to make Florida earn the last first down.
Best bet: Oklahoma +6.5 (-115).
Projected score: Florida 24, Oklahoma 20.
Best Bet: Oklahoma +6.5 (-115) at Florida
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