Louisville back Isaac Brown scored from 75 yards in the fourth quarter against Stanford, his third rushing touchdown of the afternoon. Brown has been merciless when defenders leave him a lane, having already scored from 97 and 68 yards against Florida State. Georgia Tech has just conceded 399 rushing yards to Boston College and 281 to Pitt. The Jackets’ front gets another week of trying to stop a runner who needs very little daylight. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets and the Louisville Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Georgia Tech vs. Louisville prediction, preview
Brown rushed for 139 yards against Stanford as Louisville piled up 296 on 33 carries. Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz has rushed for 11 touchdowns this season, too, so Georgia Tech can’t send everybody after the back. Louisville ranks 14th in adjusted EPA per rush against a defense that ranks 129th. Left tackle Lance Robinson has started the last two games for the injured Anwar O’Neal, and the Cardinals have continued opening enormous lanes with that lineup.
Louisville’s defense has been making those afternoons needlessly stressful. Stanford tied the game at 24 early in the third quarter and scored its touchdowns on passes of 41, 75 and 40 yards. Syracuse earned 26 first downs against the Cardinals a week earlier. Louisville has allowed 2.48 points per competitive FBS drive. Georgia Tech receiver Jordan Allen has caught 46 passes, and the Jackets can find yards downfield if their quarterback gets enough time to wait for them.
Pitt barely let the Jackets set up a throw. The Panthers sacked Georgia Tech five times and left them needing an average of 7.6 yards on third down. Coach Brent Key turned to quarterback Grady Adamson after the offense spent 12 possessions gaining 106 yards under starter Alberto Mendoza. Adamson rushed for 63 yards, finally giving the Jackets a way to advance when the protection failed. Key has left the starting decision open, with either quarterback facing the same urgent need for better blocking.
Louisville vs. Georgia Tech pick, best bet
Adamson’s touchdown at Pitt came on an 18-yard field after an interception. Georgia Tech still averaged 0.73 points per competitive drive and converted four of 23 third and fourth downs combined. He can rescue a few snaps with his legs, but the Jackets have to get Allen the ball often enough to sustain an answer to Brown. Louisville drove at least 75 yards for all four touchdowns even in its tighter win at Syracuse. The Cardinals can recover from a stalled possession without needing the defense to hand them a short field.
I lean Louisville -14.5. The Cardinals have made enough mistakes in coverage to leave Georgia Tech a route into the 20s, and their own possessions become precious if the Jackets start moving the chains. Brown and Kienholz should still force a depleted front to tackle through four quarters. I expect Louisville to finish enough of those drives to pull away, with less room than the Cardinals’ offensive fireworks might suggest.
Best bet: Louisville -14.5 (-110).
Projected score: Louisville 41, Georgia Tech 24.
Best Bet: Louisville -14.5 (-110) at Georgia Tech
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