The Air Force Falcons will face off with the Army Black Knights in a battle of two service academies. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Michie Stadium in West Point, New York.
Both teams should be encouraged by their starts to the year. Air Force enters with a 6-2 record, while Army is 5-3 on the season, and this matchup will have a major impact in the race for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. A victory by the Air Force Falcons would officially secure the award for the 22nd time in program history.
Looking at the odds, Army enters as a four-point favorite with -185 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Air Force holds +154 odds to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 43.5 points.
This article previews both teams and offers a pick for the Week 10 CFB matchup.
Air Force vs. Army Preview
Air Force Falcons
The Air Force Falcons are 6-2 on the season. Their pair of losses have come against North Dakota State and Wyoming, while they have produced wins over Duquesne, Nevada, Navy, Northern Illinois, UNLV, and UConn. Air Force has gone 5-3 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in four of its eight matchups to this point.
Troy Calhoun’s squad is averaging 29.3 points per game, which ranks 62nd in the country. They lean heavily on their rushing attack, averaging 341.0 rushing yards per game and 3.1 rushing touchdowns, compared to just 59.1 passing yards per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 21.5 points per game against the Falcons, which ranks 48th in the country. They are limiting teams to 305.4 total yards per game.
Quarterbacks Liam Szarka and Evan Medders have headlined the rushing attack, but both are dealing with injuries entering this matchup. Szarka is out for the season with a lower-leg injury, leaving Air Force to make up for his 296 passing yards and 391 rushing yards, along with eight total touchdowns across his four games played. Medders is questionable with a turf toe injury and has tallied 92 passing yards, a team-high 490 rushing yards, and eight total scores of his own this season.
Of the other available options, Owen Allen leads the rushing attack with 446 yards on the ground and three touchdowns this season. Kemper Hodges adds six rushing scores along with 401 yards on the ground, while Rocco Conti contributes 394 rushing yards and a pair of scores of his own. Gage LaDue and Matt Long have each also played a regular role and combined for 401 rushing yards. Tight end Simon Kibbee is the team’s leading receiver with eight receptions for 135 yards this year.
Army Black Knights
The Army Black Knights enter with a 5-3 record. Their three losses have come against South Florida, Louisiana Tech, and Memphis this season. Their five wins have come over Bryant, Temple, Tulane, Florida Atlantic, and Tulsa. Army has gone 4-3-1 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in six of its eight matchups this year.
As expected, Army leans heavily on its rushing attack for success. Starting quarterback Cale Hellums has completed 43 of his 76 pass attempts this season for 462 passing yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. However, his impact on the ground has been far more significant, as he leads the team with 874 rushing yards and an FBS-leading 17 touchdowns. Godspower Nwawuihe adds 455 rushing yards and four scores, while Samari Howard contributes 384 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Zach Mundell, Jake Rendina, Carson Smith, and Bryson Luter have each contributed more than 169 rushing yards. Brady Anderson leads the team in receiving with 163 yards through the air.
Jeff Monken’s squad is averaging 33.6 points per game this season while generating 413.6 total yards of offense. Their commitment to the run is predictable, but the Black Knights are creative in how they attack opposing defenses and have found plenty of success. Army averages 342.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks first nationally. Defensively, opponents are scoring 25.5 points per game against Army, which ranks 83rd, while the Black Knights are allowing 396.5 total yards of offense.
Air Force vs. Army Pick, Best Bet
I was bullish on the outlook for this Air Force team, but the injuries to the pair of quarterbacks are more than a throwaway point. It has not slowed down the Falcons much to this point, but expect this to increasingly become a factor as the season progresses. My lean is still toward Air Force keeping this game competitive and covering the four-point spread.
However, I am backing the game total to go over the 43.5-point line as my best bet for this matchup.
Do not confuse running the football with boring or ineffective offenses. Both teams are creative in the way they mix up their play calls, and both sides have some concerns about their ability to slow down the opposing rushing attack.
Army leads the entire country with 342.5 rushing yards per game, with Air Force right behind at 341.0 on average. This has translated to the two teams scoring an average of 62.9 points per game, and the game total has gone over in 10 of their 16 combined games this year.
Defense is where the concerns about how each side matches up are especially evident. Army has allowed 25.5 points per game this season and conceded 84 points over its past two games alone. The Black Knights are allowing 152.4 rushing yards per game and 1.5 rushing touchdowns, with Air Force presenting one of the most dynamic rushing attacks they have faced to this point. While the Falcons have had more defensive success, Air Force is still conceding 129.1 rushing yards per game along with 1.6 rushing scores.
The run-oriented styles of these offenses have shortened games beyond what their scoring production would indicate. However, both elite rushing attacks should have success putting their imprints on this game and putting points on the board at a high rate. Don’t be shocked if both teams score into the mid-20s and the 43.5-point game total proves to be far too low given the offensive success each team has had.
