Cincinnati back Cole Tabb ran for 173 yards against Texas Tech, then added 131 against Utah while the Bearcats endured a humbling 49–25 loss. Tabb has been doing his part. Cincinnati’s defense let Utah march 80 and 90 yards for first-half touchdowns, and now Houston quarterback Conner Weigman gets that coverage after a bye. The Cougars return for homecoming with a chance to restore the passing game their injuries constrained at Utah. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Houston Cougars and the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Houston vs. Cincinnati prediction, preview
Houston has had linebacker Jaden Yates and nose guard De’Marion Thomas back at practice. The Cougars need that help against Tabb and quarterback JC French IV, who has seven rushing touchdowns. Cincinnati ranks 21st in adjusted EPA per rush, and Utah quarterback Devon Dampier ran for 150 against Houston. If the Cougars become preoccupied with Tabb, French has enough speed to hurt the defenders who lose track of him.
French can throw against this coverage, too. Houston ranks 97th in adjusted EPA per pass allowed, although Cincinnati’s unsettled interior line could make those openings difficult to reach. Center Taran Tyo missed Utah, backup Grant Edgington is out, and the Bearcats spoiled a drive to the Utah seven-yard line with penalties and a sack. Cincinnati averaged 3.08 points per competitive drive against Texas Tech and 1.50 against Utah. French needs cleaner early downs to get back toward the former.
Weigman had to nurse Houston through two 15-play scoring drives at Utah while dealing with a foot injury and the early loss of tight end Patrick Overmyer. Both returned to practice after the bye. Overmyer has caught seven touchdowns, four at Kansas State, and Houston sorely missed that finishing in a 21–13 loss. Weigman has his most productive touchdown target back in practice just as Cincinnati comes to town.
Cincinnati vs. Houston pick, best bet
Houston ranks eighth in adjusted EPA per pass and leads the country in adjusted success rate at 50.6%. Cincinnati ranks a dreadful 126th in adjusted EPA per pass allowed. Weigman took Houston at least 75 yards for four touchdowns against Oklahoma State, so he has already sustained that work against a defense that makes him cover the field. Cincinnati has to force him off a drive before another long completion puts Overmyer within reach of the end zone.
I lean Houston -10.5, expecting French and Tabb to get Cincinnati into the high 20s even after Utah smothered much of their offense. Weigman gets the kinder coverage, though, and Overmyer’s return gives him a better chance to finish when the field tightens. Houston’s returning interior defenders only need to interrupt enough Cincinnati possessions to let that passing advantage become a lead.
Best bet: Houston -10.5 (-110).
Projected score: Houston 38, Cincinnati 27.
Best Bet: Houston -10.5 (-110) vs. Cincinnati
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