Kansas State quarterback Blake Barnett had missed seven games before coming off the bench at Colorado and throwing three touchdowns. He found tight end Garrett Oakley for the tying score in the final minute, an encouraging finish to a week in which Barnett had only just gained clearance to play. Now he gets his first start, with Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker and back Caleb Hawkins threatening to make every Kansas State punt expensive. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Kansas State Wildcats and the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State prediction, preview
Hawkins was magnificent at Iowa State, rushing for 194 yards on 25 carries and catching six passes for another 81. Kansas State coach Collin Klein has just spent a week addressing the different ways his defense misplayed Colorado’s counter runs. Hawkins can punish those same mistakes, then catch the ball in the space the Wildcats leave when they send somebody after Mestemaker. Oklahoma State has averaged 3.36 points per competitive FBS drive. The Cowboys can make Kansas State defend the entire field, repeatedly.
Mestemaker threw for 323 yards and five touchdowns in Ames, and Oklahoma State scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns, twice driving 75 yards. I expect more of that relentless offense in Manhattan. Kansas State has to disrupt a few possessions before Hawkins gets through the line or Mestemaker finds his receiver. Edge defender Wendell Gregory has 10.5 tackles for loss, and the Wildcats have allowed touchdowns on 27.9% of their competitive FBS drives. They have enough disruption to force a few punts even against these two.
Barnett ought to get chances to answer. Oklahoma State allowed 3.89 points per competitive drive to Houston and 3.64 to Iowa State, and now defensive end Jaleel Johnson, tackle Landon Dean and linebacker Tate Romney are doubtful. Cowboys defenders have been letting good offensive work go to waste. Kansas State back Rodney Fields can make that depleted front tackle early, leaving Barnett room to run or throw to Oakley and fellow tight end Linkon Cure.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State pick, best bet
Kansas State still averaged only 1.75 points per competitive drive against Colorado. Barnett’s lively relief appearance came within an offense that had spent much of the game stumbling, and a first start leaves him plenty to solve. Oklahoma State will have a better chance to separate if it stops Fields and forces Barnett into long passing downs. With the Cowboys already conceding touchdowns on 34.2% of their competitive FBS drives, I expect Kansas State to get enough easier snaps to avoid that predicament on every series.
I’ll take Kansas State +6.5. Mestemaker and Hawkins can carry Oklahoma State into the mid-30s, and I still favor the Cowboys to win. Their defense has wasted too many of those scoring drives, though. Barnett has shown enough poise with a late deficit to get another chance against this front, and he has enough receiving help to make use of it.
Best bet: Kansas State +6.5 (-108).
Projected score: Oklahoma State 34, Kansas State 31.
Best Bet: Kansas State +6.5 (-110) vs. Oklahoma State
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