The LSU Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide square off this week in a massive SEC clash. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
The Tigers are listed as six-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 52.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for this Week 10 matchup.
LSU vs. Alabama Prediction, Preview
Alabama Preview
This is a huge game for the Crimson Tide. They already have two losses on the season, and a third loss here would put them firmly on the College Football Playoff bubble, rather than in the field as they are now. Alabama will be decent to large favorites in its last three games, so this is the final real test on its schedule. A win here would almost certainly cement a spot in the College Football Playoff and give the Crimson Tide a good chance to play for the SEC title as well. Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb should come with their best possible offensive game plan to beat this elite LSU defense. The bigger worry for Alabama is on the defensive side of the ball, where the team has struggled at times this season.
LSU Preview
This is also a massive game for Lane Kiffin. He left Ole Miss for LSU to win national titles. If LSU loses this game, the program will be on the brink of playoff elimination with games against Texas and Tennessee still on the schedule. While it’s just his first season, missing the College Football Playoff would not be a good tone-setter for the Kiffin era in Baton Rouge. Unlike most Kiffin teams, the defense has actually been the strength of this team this season. LSU ranks second in the nation in adj. defensive EPA/play. However, this Alabama offense will be one of the best the Tigers have faced so far this season.
LSU vs. Alabama Pick, Best Bet
My best bet is on Alabama to cover as underdogs. This game could very well come down to who plays the better game between Keelon Russell and Sam Leavitt. Both players have the ceiling of being one of the best quarterbacks in the country, but both quarterbacks can also be mistake-prone at times.
The offensive coaches in this game are some of the best in the nation, and both teams are coming off a bye. The duos of Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb, and Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr., have both had two weeks to prepare for this game. Both coaching staffs should come with excellent game plans. The question is which quarterback will execute better.
Leavitt was playing his best football of the season before the bye, but it was against relatively weak competition, Auburn and Mississippi State. Leavitt had thrown at least one interception in every game of the season prior to those comfortable wins. The Alabama defense is averaging 1.5 interceptions per game this season, the sixth-highest mark in the country. Kane Wommack’s unit isn’t elite overall, but they are great at baiting opposing quarterbacks into mistakes.
Russell is the quarterback with arguably the highest ceiling in the entire country. Russell has shown flashes of greatness, but has also made some bad mistakes on the road against Kentucky and Tennessee this season. That is a concern headed into what will be a raucous environment in Death Valley. However, Russell is more battle-tested after getting some of those road trips under his belt, and he will be as prepared as he could possibly be to face this defense after the bye week.
My pick comes down to DeBoer being the coach I trust more in a big game over Kiffin. Leavitt and Russell are both prone to mistakes, but Russell is the quarterback I trust more to make the dazzling plays down the stretch in a close game. For those reasons, I’m backing the Crimson Tide to cover as six-point underdogs and giving them a great chance to win outright in Baton Rouge.
