The Ohio State Buckeyes host the Oregon Ducks in a fascinating matchup. Before the season, this was looked at as one of the biggest games of the year. However, both teams are without their starting quarterbacks, and this is now effectively a playoff elimination game. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Columbus, Ohio.
The Buckeyes are listed as 7.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 46.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for this Week 10 matchup.
Ohio State vs. Oregon Prediction, Preview
Oregon Preview
This has been a nightmare of a season for the Ducks. Oregon entered the season as one of the national championship favorites, but things have gone wrong from the jump. They narrowly avoided losing to Boise State in Week 1, then went on the road and lost to Oklahoma State in Week 2. Things were already looking bad for Oregon, but the Dante Moore injury that has him set to miss the season has been a backbreaker. Oregon specifically invested big money to bring in Dylan Raiola as a backup in case of injury to Moore. However, Raiola has been mostly dreadful in his time with the Ducks. Oregon’s season is likely already over with three losses, but a loss to Ohio State here would be the official nail in the coffin for the Ducks.
Ohio State Preview
Ohio State is also in trouble heading into this game. The Buckeyes lost a close early-season game on the road against Texas. While it wasn’t a bad loss on paper, it certainly gave Ohio State less room for error the rest of the season. That lack of room for error has now become a big problem since Julian Sayin got injured. Sayin got injured in Ohio State’s win over Indiana. In their only game since Sayin’s injury, Ohio State lost 30-18 to USC. The offense looked inept without Sayin, and USC has a defense that has been shredded by almost everyone this season. Unless Luke Fahey can turn things around, Ohio State will likely limp down the stretch and have a real chance of missing the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State vs. Oregon Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this game is on Oregon to cover as a 7.5-point underdog. There are simply too many unknowns in this game to back Ohio State at such a big number. While the quarterback injuries have derailed these teams, they still have two of the best defenses in the country. Oregon ranks fifth in the nation in adj. Defensive EPA/Play, and Ohio State ranks 11th in the nation in the same category. Both defenses far outclass the opposing offense in its current state. That should lead to this being a lower-scoring game where every possession is critical.
Ohio State is coming off a road loss to USC. People in the Ohio State building likely feel the anxiety setting in. Their season is very much on the line, and that performance instilled no confidence in Luke Fahey as their starting quarterback. He now has to play against an Oregon defense that is far superior to the USC unit he faced last week.
Meanwhile, Oregon just got a nice win against Northwestern last week. While Dylan Raiola has mostly struggled since taking over at quarterback for the Ducks, he stepped up in the second half of that game to keep Oregon’s season alive. That could have been the spark that Raiola needed to have confidence in this offense.
These two teams are really well coached and have elite defenses. However, Oregon has the more experienced quarterback with a higher ceiling. So, despite them being on the road, that makes the Ducks a bargain at 7.5-point underdogs.
