You hear what they’re saying out there about today? Do you feel it yourself? Whispers of one of the best college football slates of all time! Feels a bit to me like a hyperbole shackled a little too much to the ballyhoo of the moment, but, hey. Today? It sure is the best college football slate on the entire planet.
Below is my full betting slip for college football today, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of most all games listed publishing throughout the day for more in-depth breakdowns and matchup analysis.
Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all preseason and fantasy draft kit content—as well as plenty of NFL betting goodies—all season long.
Dan Johnson’s full Week 10 Saturday College Football betslip
Noon
BYU at Utah
Best bet: Utah -4.5 (-105) | Stake: 1u
Utah quarterback Devon Dampier has become a miserable assignment for defenders determined to tackle the running back. Houston crowded running back Wayshawn Parker, and Dampier punished them for 150 rushing yards; Utah then scored on all four first-half offensive possessions at Cincinnati. The Utes have already adjusted without injured left guard Kelvin Obot, with Roger Alderman starting against Houston. BYU can threaten them through quarterback Bear Bachmeier’s movement and deep completions, especially if running back LJ Martin returns from his ankle injury. Martin remains questionable, though, and practicing hardly establishes his old workload. Utah has smothered Kansas and Houston on the ground at home, allowing 58 and 86 yards. I expect Bachmeier to earn some explosive points, but Dampier and Parker have the stronger sustained rushing partnership. Utah has finished 43.5% of its qualifying drives with touchdowns; BYU must defend the quarterback throughout the possession.
Projected score: Utah 31, BYU 24.
Texas at Missouri
Best bet: Missouri +2.5 (-105) | Stake: 1u
Texas quarterback Arch Manning heads to Columbia with far too much of his supporting cast limping. Left tackle Trevor Goosby and running back Hollywood Smothers are out; receiver Cam Coleman remains questionable, although Ryan Wingo has improved to probable. Replacement tackle Andre Cojoe now faces a Missouri front that has seven sacks from edge rusher Daeden Hopkins alone. Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons has protected the ball beautifully (16 passing touchdowns, two interceptions), and his line has conceded just eight sacks through eight games. Running back Jamal Roberts won’t find Arkansas-sized holes against Texas, which allows only 102.4 rushing yards per game. Simmons can still reach receiver Cayden Lee against a secondary returning two probable defensive backs. I prefer Missouri’s healthier protection and established passing connections in a game that should demand patient offense. Texas has converted only 39.6% of third downs.
Projected score: Missouri 23, Texas 20.
UCLA at Minnesota
Best bet: Under 38.5 (-105) | Stake: 1u
Minnesota’s defense dragged its offense almost all the way to an upset at Indiana. Quarterback Drake Lindsey squeezed just 120 yards from 37 attempts and took four sacks; the Gophers needed kicker Luke Drzewiecki’s 60-yarder to lead with 19 seconds left. UCLA has the defenders to make those passing downs miserable again (1.20 points allowed per qualifying drive). Bruins quarterback Ty Dieffenbach has protected the ball since replacing injured starter Nico Iamaleava, while running back Wayne Knight has hammered opponents for 6.2 yards per carry. Knight can absolutely ruin a low total if Minnesota starts missing him. But the Gophers have stopped 72% of third-down attempts. Dieffenbach has thrown three touchdowns across three starts; Minnesota should make him work for another. I expect Minnesota to contest those possessions and UCLA to punish Lindsey’s protection more consistently than he punishes their coverage.
Projected score: UCLA 20, Minnesota 13.
Iowa State at Baylor
Best bet: Baylor -10 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Baylor’s front should make Iowa State work considerably harder for its second act. Cyclones runner Aiden Flora tore through Oklahoma State for 221 yards, but Iowa State also recovered an onside kick and a muffed punt; the Cowboys barely touched the ball in the second quarter. Baylor has interrupted offenses much more consistently (1.40 points allowed per qualifying drive), then buried UCF with seven sacks in interim coach Joe Klanderman’s debut. Bears quarterback DJ Lagway still has to earn the margin. He finally spread the damage across receiver Gavin Freeman and his tight ends while throwing four touchdowns at UCF, and Iowa State again lacks corners Beni Ngoyi and Keyon Washington. Flora’s explosiveness prevents a casual shutout forecast, while Lagway’s earlier struggles restrain my enthusiasm for double digits. His newly demonstrated passing support against those replacement corners makes Baylor’s homecoming case persuasive enough at ten.
Projected score: Baylor 30, Iowa State 17.
North Carolina at UConn
Best bet: UConn +7.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
North Carolina quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has started throwing with real authority: he completed 28 of 34 passes for 341 yards and four touchdowns against Miami despite getting almost nothing from the ground game. UConn’s trouble defending Air Force’s marathon rushing possessions hardly describes the afternoon Edwards promises. The Huskies need their own offense answering, and running back Cyncir Bowers has already obliged when Syracuse contained quarterback Kalieb Osborne’s rushing. Bowers tore off 163 yards in that overtime loss; Osborne threw for 314. Their partnership can sustain drives against a UNC defense allowing 44.2% of third-down conversions, although UConn has squandered far too much ground through penalties (77.5 yards per game). Edwards should win the passing duel. With Bowers advancing the Huskies between Osborne’s opportunities to run, I expect UConn to stay within a touchdown, and I’m taking seven and a half.
Projected score: North Carolina 31, UConn 27.
12:45 p.m.
Arkansas at Auburn
Best bet: Arkansas +10.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Auburn has another defensive repair job after losing safety Sylvester Smith-Reed and linebacker Bryce Deas; corner Andre Jordan Jr. remains questionable. Arkansas quarterback KJ Jackson has thrown for 480 yards across his last two games, and the Razorbacks earned touchdown drives of 75, 75 and 53 yards against Vanderbilt. Their passing touchdowns have disappeared over those two games, but receiver Chris Marshall’s probable return improves Jackson’s choices against this depleted coverage. Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown gashed Georgia for 115 rushing yards, but his blockers have allowed an appalling 34 sacks through eight games. Auburn has scored only 17 and 15 in its last two outings, repeatedly losing ground behind the line. Arkansas’ four turnovers against Missouri make an outright endorsement difficult. I’ll take the ten and a half against an Auburn team still struggling to protect its own possessions.
Projected score: Auburn 27, Arkansas 23.
1 p.m.
Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Best bet: Over 62.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Kansas State quarterback Blake Barnett dragged the Wildcats into overtime at Colorado, and his three touchdown passes finally made this battered offense enjoyable again. He finished drives of 80, 75 and 62 yards; the Wildcats also punted six times and missed two field goals. They have scored 17 and 21 regulation points without quarterback Avery Johnson. Oklahoma State’s missing front defenders should help Barnett, but Kansas State has its own damage: tackle Eli Jackson, safety Koy Beasley and linebacker Sawyer Schilke are doubtful. Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw five touchdowns at Iowa State; running back Caleb Hawkins amassed 275 rushing and receiving yards. Hawkins now attacks a defense still botching counter fits. With both fronts shorthanded, I favor the scoring over requiring either defense to protect a margin. Barnett can contribute in the upper 20s while Oklahoma State does the heavier scoring.
Projected score: Oklahoma State 38, Kansas State 27.
3 p.m.
Texas A&M at South Carolina
Best bet: South Carolina -7 (-102) | Stake: 1u
South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers has been making defenses defend the whole field, and Oklahoma just suffered through the consequences: six offensive touchdown drives, five covering at least 75 yards. Texas A&M did tackle Alabama’s runners much more effectively, allowing 68 yards on 28 attempts, but Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell still threw for 311 yards. Sellers can extend that same problem with his legs after his first passing option disappears. The Aggies need quarterback Marcel Reed to answer more convincingly than he did in Tuscaloosa, where they managed 163 passing yards and 2.9 yards per carry. South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart gets another vulnerable protection assignment. Sellers’ three interceptions at Oklahoma are the substantial objection; he can squander the very possessions that should create separation. I still expect his passing and rushing to outlast Reed’s repeatedly constricted offense, particularly at a flat seven.
Projected score: South Carolina 31, Texas A&M 20.
3:30 p.m.
Oregon at Ohio State
Best bet: Oregon +7.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Oregon receiver Dakorien Moore finally got quarterback Dylan Raiola’s downfield game humming against Northwestern, catching seven passes for 128 yards and two touchdowns. The Ducks recovered from an ugly opening 28 minutes to average 8.5 yards per play after halftime. Ohio State just surrendered touchdown plays of 69 and 70 yards at USC; Raiola has receivers who can exploit another lapse. Buckeyes quarterback Luke Fahey gets another chance after a punishing first start, although he had only 134 passing yards before his final two possessions in a multi-score deficit. Running backs Bo Jackson and Isaiah West can steady him after combining for 193 rushing yards. Oregon’s front, which collected three second-half sacks against Northwestern, should make his passing decisions harder. Ohio State can win through its backs and receiver Jeremiah Smith. I’m much less persuaded Fahey can build a two-score margin against Raiola’s improving offense.
Projected score: Ohio State 27, Oregon 24.
Merrimack at Wake Forest
Best bet: Wake Forest -46.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Wake Forest has been running through opponents with a ferocity that survives its substitutions. The Deacons rushed for 309 yards against Virginia, and reserve backs Jamar Searcy and Kyndall McCaleb finished touchdown drives of 82 and 75 yards. They can still demolish a defense after running back Ty Clark III takes his seat. Quarterback Gio Lopez remains day-to-day, however, and backup Steele Pizzella has attempted only nine passes this season. Wake’s passing ceiling remains unsettled. Merrimack quarterback AJ Hairston Jr. faces a front allowing 2.7 yards per carry after the Warriors rushed for just 48 in their only FBS game, at Delaware. Merrimack has finished only 12 of 28 red-zone visits with touchdowns across its nine-game schedule. I narrowly favor Wake at 46.5 because its reserve runners have demonstrated full-field finishing, while Merrimack has struggled to finish even against FCS opponents.
Projected score: Wake Forest 55, Merrimack 7.
Cincinnati at Houston
Best bet: Over 61.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
Houston quarterback Conner Weigman gets his mobility and favorite tight end back for homecoming. Weigman has practiced fully after his foot trouble, and Patrick Overmyer has returned to full speed; Houston earned four touchdown drives of at least 75 yards against Oklahoma State before their injury-interrupted Utah defeat. Cincinnati’s coverage has allowed 282.1 passing yards per game. The Bearcats can answer through running back Cole Tabb, who rushed for 173 against Texas Tech and 131 against Utah, and quarterback JC French IV’s own running. Houston held opposing backs down but conceded 150 rushing yards to Utah quarterback Devon Dampier. Returning front defenders improve Houston’s resistance, while Cincinnati center Taran Tyo’s unresolved clearance could disrupt the response. Still, Cincinnati has finished 26 of 32 red-zone trips with touchdowns. I prefer two supported scoring routes at 61.5 to requiring Houston to win this by eleven.
Projected score: Houston 38, Cincinnati 27.
3:45 p.m.
Alabama at LSU
Best bet: LSU -6 (-110) | Stake: 1u
LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has started rewarding his protection with assertive, profitable passing. He shredded Auburn for 387 yards and three touchdowns, while LSU’s defense finished that afternoon with seven sacks. Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell arrives after his own 311-yard recovery against Texas A&M, but he has absorbed 22 sacks this season. LSU edge rushers Princewill Umanmielen and Jordan Ross can turn those protection failures into another miserable afternoon. With receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams improving to probable, Alabama has a better chance to punish an aggressive rush; LSU also lists tight end Trey’Dez Green questionable and linebacker Whit Weeks doubtful. I’m tempering the margin accordingly. LSU has nevertheless allowed touchdowns on just 11.4% of qualifying drives, and Leavitt has recently exploited the protection that Alabama’s edges will challenge. At six, I favor LSU’s more dependable passing possessions and sustained defensive disruption.
Projected score: LSU 31, Alabama 23.
6 p.m.
Boise State at Colorado State
Best bet: Boise State -16.5 (-115) | Stake: 1u
Boise State quarterback Max Cutforth earned this start with three touchdown passes in a frantic rescue against Texas State; Maddux Madsen’s knee injury now rules the starter out. Cutforth also gets running back Dylan Riley against a Colorado State defense that has allowed an FBS-worst 4.24 points per qualifying drive. Rams coach Jim Mora has described defenders guessing at gaps and failing to replace teammates outside. Riley can punish those mistakes throughout a possession. Boise’s defense deserves scrutiny after squandering a 28–3 lead, and Colorado State quarterback Hauss Hejny can exploit its deep passing concessions. But the Rams just managed 263 yards at Utah State, with eight tackles for loss disrupting their possessions, and now list receiver Makhi Johnson out and multiple backs and blockers questionable. Cutforth’s small relief sample warrants restraint. Riley’s sustained rushing matchup and Colorado State’s damaged offensive support make sixteen and a half manageable.
Projected score: Boise State 45, Colorado State 24.
6:20 p.m.
Kentucky at Tennessee
Best bet: Under 49.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop has been punishing defenses while quarterback George MacIntyre labors through his first starts. MacIntyre has thrown two touchdowns against three interceptions in his three starts; Tennessee has yet to exceed 26 points in an SEC game. Kentucky quarterback Kenny Minchey has been far more careful (14 touchdowns, one interception), but his offense converts only 33.7% of third downs and now faces a Tennessee front with 35 sacks. The Wildcats must turn their early-down gains into manageable passing assignments, especially with Neyland celebrating homecoming in Dark Mode. Bishop’s four straight 120-yard rushing games threaten the under, as do Kentucky’s takeaway-created short fields. But Tennessee still lacks guard Wendell Moe Jr. and tight end Ethan Davis, while Kentucky allows 113.3 rushing yards per game. I expect Bishop to advance drives and both defenses to make the passing finishes difficult.
Projected score: Tennessee 24, Kentucky 20.
7:30 p.m.
Georgia at Ole Miss
Best bet: Georgia -3.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been magnificent at rescuing the Rebels’ offense from its injuries. With running back Kewan Lacy out, they still marched 89, 86, 75 and 72 yards for touchdowns against Auburn; Chambliss threw for 263 yards and ran for 65. Georgia allows only 86 rushing yards per game, although linebacker AJ Kruah and lineman Joseph Jonah-Ajonye now join its absences. Chambliss should find some scoring drives through his receivers and movement. Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton has the more durable help: Georgia has started the same five linemen all season and conceded only nine sacks. Against an Ole Miss defense allowing 148.9 rushing yards per game, those blockers can win on the ground and protect Stockton when Georgia throws. I favor their repeated execution at -3.5 over asking Chambliss to overcome the harder rushing resistance all evening.
Projected score: Georgia 31, Ole Miss 24.
Miami at Notre Dame
Best bet: Miami +7 (-105) | Stake: 1u
Miami quarterback Darian Mensah has lost a devastatingly productive partner in receiver Malachi Toney. Toney caught 13 touchdowns before injuring his ankle; Miami now needs a much larger contribution from Mensah’s former Duke target Cooper Barkate and tight end Elija Lofton. Notre Dame lacks starting linebacker Drayk Bowen and corner DJ McKinney, with tackles Francis Brewu and Jason Onye questionable. Mensah can attack those replacements, although I expect Miami’s finishing to suffer during the receiving overhaul. Irish quarterback CJ Carr should find openings against a defense that just allowed North Carolina four passing touchdowns; running back Nolan James Jr. arrives after his second 100-yard game. Notre Dame has the more complete offense today. Mensah has nevertheless thrown 25 touchdowns against one interception, and his remaining targets face enough replacement defenders to make seven points attractive.
Projected score: Notre Dame 31, Miami 27.
Louisville at Georgia Tech
Best bet: Louisville -14.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Louisville’s runners have been spectacular, and we badly underestimated their appetite for touchdowns while Stanford stayed competitive last week. Since offensive coordinator Brian Brohm assumed play-calling duties, the Cardinals have scored at least four rushing touchdowns in three straight games. Leading back Isaac Brown is newly questionable, with receiver Lawayne McCoy out. Reserve back Keyjuan Brown gained 50 yards on seven carries against Stanford; quarterback Lincoln Kienholz added 62 on nine. Those are credible alternatives against a Georgia Tech front that has conceded 399 and 281 rushing yards in consecutive games, although neither replaces Isaac’s explosiveness automatically. The Jackets should attack Louisville’s recurring coverage failures, but quarterbacks Alberto Mendoza and Grady Adamson have struggled to sustain scoring drives; Adamson’s touchdown at Pitt began just 18 yards out. I narrowly favor Louisville’s multiple runners at 14.5. Isaac’s unresolved workload makes a runaway much harder to endorse.
Projected score: Louisville 41, Georgia Tech 24.
7:35 p.m.
Iowa at Northwestern
Best bet: Iowa -2.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Iowa’s defense finally got first-rate assistance from quarterback Hank Brown against Wisconsin. He completed 20 of 24 throws for 222 yards and two touchdowns, with Iowa finishing touchdown drives of 75, 98 and 71 yards. Northwestern’s defense allowed Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola 336 passing yards, conceding a late 75-yard touchdown drive. The Wildcats have stifled runners, and Brown must throw well again. Northwestern loses far more than passing volume with quarterback Aidan Chiles out: he has run for ten touchdowns, repeatedly finishing the possessions coordinator Chip Kelly’s offense creates. Replacement quarterback Nicco Marchiol has experience from West Virginia, but only one pass attempt for Northwestern this season. Iowa has allowed touchdowns on just 12.5% of qualifying drives. Marchiol and receiver Griffin Wilde can still test a secondary that struggled against Ohio State. I’m backing Brown’s long-field execution and Iowa’s front to make the replacement offense earn a harder evening.
Projected score: Iowa 24, Northwestern 17.
7:45 p.m.
Oklahoma at Florida
Best bet: Oklahoma +5.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Florida quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. earned another start by sustaining possessions in Austin, and I’m glad he gets it. Georgia then exposed how much the Gators still need to repair, holding running back Jadan Baugh to 38 yards on 17 carries. Florida loses tackle Emeka Ugorji and receiver Vernell Brown III, although receiver Bailey Stockton and lineman Emmanuel Oyebadejo have improved to probable. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer regains center Jake Maikkula and tight end Rocky Beers. Mateer demonstrated the passing this offense needs at Mississippi State (283 yards, two touchdowns, 9.8 yards per attempt); his late South Carolina yardage offers much less encouragement. New play caller Jason Witten still inherits a dreadful finishing problem (7 of 20 red-zone trips ending in touchdowns). I expect Florida to win, with Oklahoma’s 28.2% third-down defense making another Jones-led procession downfield considerably harder. At +5.5, I narrowly prefer the dog.
Projected score: Florida 24, Oklahoma 20.
8 p.m.
Liberty at New Mexico State
Best bet: Liberty -15.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
New Mexico State is wasting some excellent running from back James Jones. He rushed for 112 yards against Jacksonville State, but the Aggies missed a short field goal after marching 78 yards in 17 plays and finished with 23 passing yards and no points. Coach Tony Sanchez has given Trey Hedden and Kalani McLeod most first-team quarterback reps this week. Liberty quarterback Deshawn Purdie just completed 16 of 19 throws against FIU, while receiver Makai Jackson has averaged a punishing 21.6 yards per catch. The Flames earned touchdown drives of 81, 77 and 65 yards against FIU, with quarterback Ethan Vasko handling goal-line work. Jones can move New Mexico State, and its disruptive front can exploit Liberty’s penalties. But the Aggies struggle to recover through passing after a failed run; Purdie has demonstrated the downfield answer that makes repeated Liberty finishes more persuasive at 15.5.
Projected score: Liberty 34, New Mexico State 13.
9:30 p.m.
West Virginia at Texas Tech
Best bet: Over 65.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
Texas Tech quarterback Thomas Castellanos has made an already difficult running game downright menacing. He rushed for 117 yards as the Red Raiders pounded Arizona for 328, and West Virginia has allowed 261.6 rushing yards per game. Castellanos can force the Mountaineers to defend his legs throughout possessions they already struggle to interrupt. West Virginia quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. has a plausible answer through the air: he threw for 464 yards against Cincinnati, while Texas Tech has conceded 417 to both Arizona and Oregon State. Mountaineers running back Cam Cook, already at 923 rushing yards, faces a much stingier front allowing 94.9 per game. Hawkins needs to carry more of this response. His demonstrated passing against Texas Tech’s vulnerable coverage persuades me West Virginia can contribute substantially to 65.5, even when the Red Raiders stop Cook. Castellanos should do considerably more damage against the weaker run defense.
Projected score: Texas Tech 41, West Virginia 31.
Hawaii at UTEP
Best bet: Hawaii -7.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado attacked Northern Illinois for four completions of at least 40 yards, and his offense earned two 75-yard touchdown drives during the 56–21 win. The Warriors also forced five turnovers, so treating 56 as their new weekly expectation would oversell the recovery. UTEP has struggled to end opponents’ drives (3.51 points allowed per qualifying drive). Miners quarterback Raymond Moore III scored on a clever 57-yard direct snap at North Dakota State; UTEP gained just 181 yards on its other 50 plays. Fellow quarterback EJ Colson Jr. threw two interceptions while averaging fewer than four yards per attempt. Hawaii’s missing defensive linemen give Moore’s running packages some promise, and UTEP defended much better than its eventual 31 points allowed suggested. But the Miners still haven’t established repeated drives beyond that opening surprise. I prefer Alejado’s demonstrated long-field passing at seven and a half.
Projected score: Hawaii 28, UTEP 14.
10:32 p.m.
Wyoming at UNLV
Best bet: Wyoming +4 (-115) | Stake: 1u
UNLV’s defenders had a bye to repair their tackling and still missed more than twenty tackles against Northern Illinois. Wyoming quarterback Tyler Hughes and running back Markell Holman should make them answer for it. The Cowboys have scored only 39 points across four road trips, but they also finished an 18-play, 75-yard tying touchdown drive at San Jose State after allowing six sacks. Hughes has shown an answer to early losses; UNLV has spent its last two games conceding 670 rushing yards. Rebels quarterback Jackson Arnold can exploit Wyoming’s own rushing concessions, which reached 304 yards against Air Force. Running back Jai’Den Thomas remains questionable, though, and Wyoming has allowed touchdowns on only 12 of 28 red-zone visits. I expect Arnold to find explosive plays and Hughes to sustain more possessions than his road scoring suggests. I’ll take four rather than require both rushing attacks to stall.
Projected score: UNLV 27, Wyoming 24.
