Iowa State brings Aiden Flora to Baylor’s homecoming a week after the Cyclones’ back ran for 221 yards against Oklahoma State. Baylor brings a front that sacked UCF seven times in Joe Klanderman’s first game as interim coach. Flora has already turned three runs of 60-plus yards into touchdowns this season. The Bears have spent most of the fall making the first six yards hard to come by. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Baylor Bears and the Iowa State Cyclones.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Baylor vs. Iowa State prediction, preview
Iowa State gained 581 yards at 8.1 per snap in its 51–49 win. Freshman receiver Jamal Polite Jr. gave quarterback Jaylen Raynor a downfield target and caught the 33-yarder that set up the winning kick. The Cyclones also recovered an onside kick and a muffed punt, scored 10 points from those possessions and allowed Oklahoma State to touch the ball just once in the second quarter. Raynor and Polite may have to travel farther for their next opportunities.
The Bears have allowed 1.40 points per competitive FBS drive, with opponents reaching the end zone on 14.1% of those possessions. Kansas showed what it takes to wear them down. Jayhawks back Dylan Edwards carried 30 times for 156 yards, and Kansas ran for 47 of the 71 yards on its winning drive. Flora can exploit the same kind of daylight. Iowa State’s line, with Makai Sat making his first two career starts at left guard in the past two games, has to open it often enough for the Cyclones to stick with him.
When Arizona held the Cyclones to 52 rushing yards on 31 attempts, they crossed the opposing 40 only three times. Raynor completed eight of 10 passes for 106 yards and lost a fumble on a pitch while trying to elude pressure. Iowa State has scored on all 23 of its red-zone trips this season. Baylor can make that excellent finishing habit a minor part of the afternoon by making Raynor throw through difficult downs before he gets anywhere near the 20.
Iowa State vs. Baylor pick, best bet
Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway threw for 319 yards and four touchdowns against UCF. Receiver Gavin Freeman caught 114 yards’ worth, and tight ends Tony Livingston and Matthew Klopfenstein each caught a touchdown. Iowa State is down cornerbacks Beni Ngoyi and Keyon Washington. If the Cyclones give their replacement corners help outside, Lagway has already shown he can turn to the tight ends. Iowa State has conceded touchdowns on 35.6% of its competitive FBS drives.
Baylor averaged 0.50 points per drive against TCU and 1.42 against Kansas, so the Bears still have to earn their way into the 30s. The difference in Waco is how cleanly Lagway can get to his second target and how often the Bears can make Raynor solve third-and-long. I’m laying 9.5 with a Baylor defense that can survive a big Flora run and still force Iowa State to play most of its possessions from farther out.
Best bet: Baylor -9.5 (-112).
Projected score: Baylor 30, Iowa State 17.
Best Bet: Baylor -9.5 (-110) vs. Iowa State
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