North Carolina quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. threw four touchdowns against Miami, completed 28 of 34 passes and still left with a loss. Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino had the Hurricanes chasing receivers while the Tar Heels scraped together 66 rushing yards. Edwards played beautifully under those circumstances. North Carolina’s defense has been far less accommodating to its own quarterback, repeatedly failing to end series that he then has to answer. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Connecticut Huskies and the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UConn vs. UNC prediction, preview
Syracuse converted four of seven fourth downs against North Carolina. UConn quarterback Kalieb Osborne and back Cyncir Bowers can make those failures especially aggravating, since either can carry the ball on a down when the defense gets everyone else covered. The Huskies rank 24th in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush against a defense that ranks 81st. If Bowers gets through the first tackle, Osborne can attack the next down with his arm or his legs.
Bowers has already rescued UConn when a defense accounted for Osborne. Syracuse held the quarterback to 23 rushing yards, only for Bowers to rip off 163 on 16 carries and tie the game with a 71-yard touchdown. Osborne threw for 314 as the Huskies erased a 20-point second-half deficit and reached 34 in regulation. That’s a resourceful offense, and North Carolina has been generous about giving resourceful offenses another snap.
Edwards should make the Huskies defend plenty of snaps themselves. North Carolina ranks 15th in adjusted offensive success rate, while UConn ranks 111th both in success rate allowed and adjusted EPA per pass allowed. Petrino has good reason to let Edwards throw early again. The Tar Heels’ late strip-sack against Miami still hangs over that plan, though. Edwards can punish this coverage so long as his blockers give him time to release the ball.
UNC vs. UConn pick, best bet
UConn has been perfectly capable of spoiling its own work, too. The Huskies average 77.5 penalty yards per game, an infuriating habit for an offense that gets so much from manageable downs. North Carolina edge rusher Xavier Lewis becomes a much nastier problem after a flag. Maryland held UConn to 1.40 points per competitive FBS drive, but Osborne answered Air Force with three 75-yard touchdown drives and 2.89 points per drive despite long stretches on the sideline. The Huskies have repeatedly found ways to resume moving after trouble.
I’ll take UConn +7.5. Edwards has the more inviting passing matchup and should get North Carolina into the 30s. Bowers gives the Huskies enough help to answer even if the Tar Heels contain Osborne’s rushing, and North Carolina’s repeated failures to finish defensive series leave an opening for UConn to make this another exasperatingly close afternoon.
Best bet: UConn +7.5 (-108).
Projected score: North Carolina 31, UConn 27.
Best Bet: UConn +7.5 (-110) vs. UNC
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