The college football season rolls along this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of 6 ranks. The Big Ten plays host to one of these contests, as we’ll see the UCLA Bruins take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a game that could have significant implications on the conference title and College Football Playoff picture.
UCLA enters this game off a comfortable victory against Nevada at home. On the other side, Minnesota has largely been very competitive in Big Ten play this season — including a brutal loss to Indiana in overtime a week ago. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s college football game between UCLA and Minnesota.
UCLA is a 5.5-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 38.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Saturday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 10 college football action at DraftKings Network.
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UCLA vs. Minnesota Prediction
UCLA has been one of the best stories in college football in Bob Chesney’s first season as the head coach. Not only are the Bruins undefeated, but they are also a perfect 8-0 against the spread through the first two months of the campaign. The Bruins have already surpassed all preseason expectations thanks to a combination of excellent coaching and a schedule that turned out to be a fair bit softer than what projections suggested.
UCLA’s offense is extremely well-coached and has been very successful at establishing the run (ranked 3rd in yards per rush and 23rd in rushing success rate) and sticking with it over the course of 60 minutes. However, there is a bit of noise in UCLA’s statistical profile, especially when you look at the Bruins’ nation-leading +15 turnover margin that is somewhat masking the lack of a successful passing game. With backup quarterback Ty Dieffenbach at the helm, the Bruins have slipped to 83rd in EPA per dropback and 102nd in passing success rate. A matchup against Minnesota’s excellent pass defense (18th in EPA per dropback, 19th in passing success rate allowed) where those glaring flaws in their passing offense could be exposed.
As for the hosts, this isn’t the greatest situational spot in the world for Minnesota on paper, as the Gophers are coming off a brutal loss against Indiana in overtime last week. However, we’ve seen PJ Fleck’s team thrive in this exact setting multiple times already this season, and they’ve come through each time. After all, the Gophers were an underdog of nearly a touchdown against Michigan on October 3 and won that game outright, and followed that up with a victory over Iowa as a 7.5-point underdog in their next home game.
Minnesota’s offense is nothing to write home about but they have been able to move the ball on the ground, something that it should be able to lean on in this one. Saturday’s matchup is already going to be played in a box without many explosive plays, and that plays into a game script that favors the hosts. The Gophers also have the travel edge, with UCLA having to play an early morning body clock game in the midwest in November. In a game with a total in the 30s, catching nearly six points at home is inherently valuable.
UCLA vs Minnesota Best Bet
UCLA has been a great story, but the Bruins run of good fortune and turnover luck won’t last forever. It remains to be seen if Minnesota will spring another outright upset in Big Ten play at home, but I have full confidence in Fleck and this group to hang within this number for a full 60 minutes.