The Duke Blue Devils will face off with the North Carolina State Wolfpack as part of the Week 10 college football slate. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET.
Duke is off to a 6-2 start to the season, while NC State sits at 4-4 on the year. Both sides are coming off victories last week, but feelings on the season are much different for this pair of ACC opponents.
Looking at the odds, Duke enters as a four-point favorite with -192 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. NC State is +160 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 51.5 points. Let’s get into my preview and prediction for this matchup.
Duke vs. North Carolina State Preview
Duke Blue Devils
The Duke Blue Devils are off to a 6-2 start to the season, including a 3-2 record in ACC play, and have already secured bowl eligibility. Their pair of losses came against Georgia Tech and North Carolina, but they are looking to build off the momentum of back-to-back wins over Virginia and Boston College. Duke has gone 6-2 against the spread this season, while the game total has stayed under in five of its eight matchups.
Nate Sheppard has been the biggest offensive weapon for the Blue Devils this season. He leads the ACC with 972 rushing yards and has found the end zone 18 times through the first eight games. Sheppard is coming off an impressive five-touchdown performance against Boston College, finishing with 97 yards on the ground. He has also provided value as a receiver out of the backfield, making him one of the most versatile offensive weapons in college football. CJ Campbell and Jayvian Tanelus also play a role in the running game.
The production at quarterback has not been as consistent, with Walker Eget starting under center. The San Jose State transfer has completed 61.9% of his pass attempts for 1,641 passing yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Jonah Burton leads the team with 308 receiving yards and a touchdown, while Jeremiah Hasley adds 305 yards and a score of his own at the tight end position. Sheppard has added 302 receiving yards, with four of his 18 touchdowns coming through the air. Jared Richardson, Jaivon Solomon and Jayden Moore have also recorded at least 100 receiving yards.
As a unit, Duke is scoring an average of 32.0 points per game, which ranks 48th in the country. The Blue Devils have tallied as many as 62 points in a matchup and most recently scored 47 against Boston College. Defense is also a key part of Duke’s identity. The Blue Devils rank ninth in the country in points allowed, giving up just 14.3 per game. They are limiting teams to 290.3 total yards of offense and forcing 1.1 turnovers per game.
North Carolina State
It has been a much more turbulent season for the North Carolina State Wolfpack. They hold a 4-4 overall record but are coming off their first victory under interim head coach Todd Goebbel, as longtime head coach Dave Doeren was dismissed following the loss to Stanford. The 31-10 victory over California after the coaching change was a positive sign that the program still has fight, but the decision to move on from Doeren speaks to the level of frustration surrounding the program. NC State has gone 3-5 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in five of its eight matchups.
CJ Bailey stands in at quarterback and has completed 63.9% of his pass attempts for 1,955 yards, 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has been in strong form of late, with five touchdowns and zero interceptions across the past three games. Bailey also contributes to the rushing attack with 178 yards on the ground and two scores. Jayden “Duke” Scott leads the team with 358 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Scott has been dealing with a foot injury that has kept him sidelined since Week 5, but he is listed as questionable for this matchup. In his absence, Davion Gause has grown his rushing total to 352 yards this season with a pair of rushing scores, while backup quarterback Will Wilson is a key figure around the goal line with a team-high eight rushing touchdowns. Keenan Jackson is the team’s leading receiver with 456 yards and six touchdowns through the air.
NC State is scoring 32.1 points per game, which ranks 47th in the country. The Wolfpack have a balanced attack, averaging 249.4 passing yards and 1.9 passing touchdowns per game, along with 158.9 rushing yards and 2.3 rushing touchdowns. Defensively, the Wolfpack have had far more issues. They are allowing 25.9 points per game and 366.1 total yards of offense. Limiting California to 10 points last week was a major sign of improvement, but NC State had allowed at least 28 points in five consecutive games before that and in six of its first seven games overall.
Duke vs. North Carolina State Pick
It was encouraging for NC State to show a pulse last week following the firing of Doeren. This felt like a real pivot point in the season for the Wolfpack, and they showed they were not going to just throw in the towel. If their defensive improvements are real, there is a pathway to salvaging the season.
However, this is a Duke team that will present an even greater challenge. The Blue Devils’ impressive defense and rush-oriented attack create a high floor for what to expect on a week-to-week basis. Expect their defensive unit to have success generating pressure on Bailey and for the limitations of this NC State offense to become evident. The Blue Devils have tallied 24 sacks through eight games, and the pass rush should be a factor throughout this matchup.
Duke should also be expected to have plenty of success with its rushing attack, headlined by the stellar play of Nate Sheppard. He is a true difference-maker in the flow of the offense and a complete football player who challenges a defense in a variety of ways. NC State has struggled against running backs with far less talent than Sheppard, allowing 131.0 rushing yards per game this season. His presence should be felt throughout this matchup.
Duke has won each of the last three meetings against NC State, including a 45-33 win last year. The Blue Devils have established themselves as a legitimate contender in the ACC, and this is the type of matchup in which they can make a statement. Expect the high-powered defensive unit to be the story of this matchup and for Duke to generate enough offense to pull away in the second half. The Blue Devils are 6-2 against the spread this season, and expect them to cover again in Week 10.
