Most of the talk early in the season about one of the Premier League Big Six being relegated pertained to Tottenham Hotspur, as it sat bottom of the table during the first international break. However, Manchester United is only above the drop zone on goal difference after nine weeks of matches, and Spurs are five points clear.
The Red Devils will next attempt to claw some points back at 11:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. local) when they host Aston Villa, which is once again climbing the table after a slow start to the campaign.
Manchester United is a +120 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and the Villans are +210. A draw is available at +270.
Below, I’ll break down this battle of Champions League sides and provide my favorite bet.
Manchester United vs. Aston Villa Best Bet:
- Aston Villa Moneyline (+210): Even after beating Roma in the Champions League, Manchester United just hasn’t been in very good form, and I’m a believer in Aston Villa, given that they’re 3-1-1 over their last five Premier League games. The Red Devils haven’t been clinical enough to get one past Zion Suzuki, and the Villans have one of the hottest strikers in the world in Nicolas Jackson. I’m not sure if Michael Carrick will continue to be the manager after today’s game.
Manchester United vs. Aston Villa prediction, pick
The Red Devils lost in the opening week of the season to newly-promoted Hull City, picked up a win over Ipswich Town the following week, and haven’t gotten much of anything since, squandering a late lead to Tottenham in Matchweek 6 and suffering back-to-back clean sheet losses. Even the Champions League hasn’t gone particularly well; Man United beat Sabah, but it got blown out by Atlético Madrid and Como and needed a late comeback to beat Roma, making it the only Premier League side not in the top eight so far. As for Aston Villa, it took just one point from its first four Premier League matches, but it hasn’t lost since, and one of its results was an impressive domestic win over Manchester City, which topped the table at the time. The Villans are coming off of a 3-0 defeat in the UCL, but it’s hard to read too much into an away result against Barcelona, and they still sit sixth in the UCL table, second among Premier League sides behind only Arsenal.
The Red Devils have had their bright spots despite their disappointing position in the table, as Bruno Fernandes had a hat trick against the Tractor Boys, and Bryan Mbeumo has four goals, including the go-ahead strikes against both Spurs and Leeds that ultimately led to draws. Matheus Cunha, the hero in the comeback over Roma, has a goal and two assists in the Premier League. Manchester United has produced plenty of chances, producing the seventh-most xG from the most shots and the fourth-most shots on target, but it simply hasn’t been clinical enough, ranking fourth-to-last in goals minus xG. It’s also managed the most fast-breaks (17) but only two goals from such situations, and one headed goal from 23 attempts, which clearly isn’t sufficient. The Red Devils’ defense has been the real let-down; they’ve given up chances worth the fifth-most xG despite allowing the fifth-fewest shots, and while some of that is rotten luck, the fact that 73.6% of opponents’ chances have come inside the box is a real vulnerability. So, too, is their inability to play the offsides trap, and they’ve produced the seventh-fewest high turnovers ending in a shot. The injuries that Carlos Baleba and Luke Shaw suffered certainly won’t help, either, and I’m not sure Senne Lammens, for all of his impressive advanced numbers, is a particularly reliable option between the sticks. It would surprise me if Manchester United actually ends up suffering the drop, but Michael Carrick’s job is on the line for a reason.
Aston Villa is heating up, and so is its main striker, Nicolas Jackson, who has five goals in his last five Premier League matches. The Senegalese striker has been excellent up front in Unai Emery’s 4-2-3-1, and midfielders Johan Manzambi and John McGinn each have a trio of assists. Although Ross Barkley hasn’t scored in the Premier League yet this season, he has a trio in the UCL, and 18-year-old Ibrahim Mbaye and 17-year-old Brian Madjo remain tantalizing wild cards. Still, even with Jackson’s improved form, the Villans have produced the fourth-fewest xG and the fewest shots on target, and they’ve been the worst team from set pieces. Defensively, Aston Villa has allowed chances worth the sixth-most xG from the fifth-most on shots (sixth-most on target), and it’s been by far the worst team in aerial duels. Despite their vulnarabilities, the Villans have still been the best at catching opponents offsides, and goalkeeper Zion Suzuki has been tremendous since coming over from Parma during the summer. Holding the Sky Blues to just one goal from 15 shots was no fluke, as Suzuki had a masterclass.
It feels unreasonable not to expect the Red Devils to end up turning it around at some point, and I don’t think their run of six wins and a draw in Carrick’s first seven matches in charge in early 2026 was a complete fluke. However, Old Trafford hasn’t exactly been a fortress this season, even though Man United fans have outwardly demonstrated support towards Carrick. In fact, despite sitting just five places above the Red Devils in the table, Aston Villa has managed more points on the road than United has at home. Backing Emery’s men at +210 to pick up a fourth win in five Premier League matches seems like a worthwhile flyer.
