When LeBron James announced during the summer that he’d be leaving the Los Angeles Lakers, it was commonly figured that he might return home for the second time and sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Instead, he opted to join the Philadelphia 76ers, teaming up with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, and the newly-acquired Jaylen Brown.
He’s already faced the Cavaliers once as a 76er, but now he’ll return to Rocket Arena as a Philadelphia player for the first time at 7:30 p.m. ET. He’s expected to get a warmer reaction than the first time he visited Cleveland as an opposing player, but perhaps not an outright warm one.
The 76ers will continue to be without Dominick Barlow (back) and Ariel Hukporti (Achilles), although backup center Adem Bona (back), who’s played every game so far, is doubtful. For the Cavaliers, Khalifa Diop (G-League), Nae’Qwan Tomlin (back), Jaylon Tyson (ankle), and Ernest Udeh, Jr. (G-League) are out, and Jarrett Allen (knee), Tyrese Proctor (ankle), and Peyton Watson (hamstring) are all questionable.
Philadelphia is a 2.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-148 Moneyline), with the point total set to 230.5. Cleveland is +124 on the Moneyline.
n”]Below, I’ll break down James’ latest homecoming and offer a prediction.
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers preview, prediction
It wasn’t clear if the 76ers would click immediately, but they’re a league-best 8-1, including a pair of victories over the defending champion New York Knicks, and everything has worked well. James has taken a step back scoring-wise, but Tyrese Maxey has continued his emergence as one of the league’s brightest stars, and Jaylen Brown has shot rather efficiently from beyond the arc. Philadelphia’s offense has actually struggled, as he ranks just 20th in offensive rating, but its defense has been elite, trailing only the Detroit Pistons. I expect Philadelphia’s offense to improve at some point and its defense to regress, but it should continue finding ways to win.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers opened their season by blowing a 29-point lead to the 76ers, and with three losses in their last four games, it hasn’t gotten much better since then. To be fair, Cleveland has faced some difficult opponents, including back-to-back games against the 2024/25 champion Oklahoma City Thunder, but James Harden’s shooting has been poor from inside the arc and Donovan Mitchell’s 22.5 points per game is his lowest average since his rookie season. Watson, the Cavaliers’ marquee summer acquisition, also hasn’t gotten much going. Cleveland has still produced the ninth-best offense, but it’s paired that with the ninth-worst defense.
76ers at Cavaliers pick, best bet
Both teams have rosters full of slashers, so it shouldn’t be surprising that they rank sixth and eighth, respectively, in restricted-area shots per game. Neither team has finished very well, though; James has missed more layups than usual, Edgecombe’s finishing touch hasn’t come around yet, and Harden has somehow only made 40.9% of his layups, the latter of which is definitely bound to improve. What they’ve taken, they’ve given away on the other end, allowing the fifth- and seventh-most restricted-area tries per game, although the Cavaliers have limited opponents to a lower percentage than Philadelphia has, which could be sustainable given each team’s 2025/26 numbers.
Both teams have been similarly effective on the glass this season, although Cleveland would definitely take a major hit in that regard if Allen doesn’t end up playing, since its listed backup center is Thomas Bryant, who’s snagged only two boards in 29 minutes of action. The 76ers’ edge in transition should be sustainable, given that James and Maxey were both among the best transition players last season, although both teams have been excellent at taking care of the ball so far. The teams have been almost equally good at getting to the charity stripe so far.
The Cavaliers have been the much more jumper-reliant team, and that’s just as well, given that they’ve also been the better three-point shooting team. Cleveland has generated 4.1 more wide-open triples per game than Philadelphia has, and both teams have gotten slightly unlucky, with the Cavaliers shooting 35.4% on such looks and the 76ers 30.7%. However, the 76ers have done a better job closing out on opposing shooters, allowing 4.3 fewer uncontested triples per game. I’d still give Cleveland the slight shooting edge overall because I trust Mitchell and Harden more as pure shooters over any player in Philadelphia’s starting lineup besides Maxey, but the 76ers’ elite defense hasn’t been a fluke.
These teams are pretty evenly-matched in every facet of the game, so the result should be tight, but in the end, I’ll back Philadelphia to continue its hot start. The 76ers have done a good job forcing difficult shots, and Tyson — who proved adept last season at knocking down tough looks — is gone. Teams that beat Philadelphia need to drive relentlessly and be lights-out from the midrange, and the Cavaliers have neither finished well enough nor been quite good enough on short jumpers.
