The college football season rolls along this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of 6 ranks. The ACC plays host to one of these contests, as we’ll see the Virginia Tech Hokies take on the SMU Mustangs in a matchups that essentially functions as an elimination game in the conference title race.
Virginia Tech enters this game off a bye week following a win over Clemson in Death Valley that is already aging well. By contrast, SMU has been largely underwhelming this season — including in a brutal loss to Syracuse a week ago. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Friday’s college football game between Virginia Tech and SMU.
SMU is a 6.5-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 56.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Friday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 10 college football action at DraftKings Network.
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Virginia Tech vs. SMU Prediction
Virginia Tech has taken on the personality of its coach in James Franklin’s first season in Blacksburg, and the Hokies have also adopted his penchant for baffling losses. Virginia Tech has some impressive victories this year but the Hokies have also suffered a couple of losses against California and Pittsburgh in a pair of games that came down to the final seconds. However, Virginia Tech has fared well in the underdog role this season and Franklin’s group is in position to replicate that success on Friday.
For starters, this is solid situational spot for the visitors. Virginia Tech is coming off a bye following its upset win over Clemson in Death Valley, while SMU just went to Syracuse and lost outright as nearly a double-digit favorite. The Mustangs have not been making their backers much money this season, as they hold a 3-4-1 against the spread record on the campaign while failing to cover the number in four of their last six contests. Conversely, Virginia Tech is 5-3 ATS with its only losses against the number coming in the favorite role. This is a much different circumstance entirely, especially against a team that has underwhelmed all season.
Part of why SMU is a difficult team to back as a favorite of nearly a full touchdown in this spot is the Mustangs are consistently getting out to slow starts. In fact, Rhett Lashlee’s team trailed at the half against California and Syracuse in each of the last two weeks, while only holding halftime leads of 3 and 4 points respectively against the likes of Boston College and Missouri State. SMU has been able to dig itself out of some early holes, but that playbook might have run dry after last week’s defeat, and the Hokies emphasis on grinding out drives and winning the time of possession battle makes it imperative that the Mustangs start fast.
Elsewhere, Virginia Tech quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer has done an excellent job of keeping the ball out of harm’s way (17 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions this season), and he should see success against an SMU defense that is 65th in EPA per play allowed. On a down-to-down basis, the Mustangs offense is solid, but Kevin Jennings has turned the ball over 6 times this season and that makes him hard to trust against a Virginia Tech defense that is ranked 5th nationally in Havoc created.
Virginia Tech vs SMU Best Bet
Both of these teams are no stranger to close games this season, and I expect this one to be decided in the final minutes. With that in mind, I can only look toward Virginia Tech as an underdog of nearly a touchdown on Friday.