The East Carolina Pirates (4-4, 2-2 American) will host the South Florida Bulls (6-2, 2-2 American) on Friday as they look to move back over .500 in conference play. The Bulls are in the same spot in the standings, but haven’t beaten the Pirates since 2019.
East Carolina is a 2.5-point home favorite with -135 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. South Florida is a +114 underdog, with the game total set at 39.5 points. Here’s a preview of the Week 10 college football showdown between East Carolina and South Florida.
East Carolina Pirates vs. South Florida Bulls Preview
East Carolina
After losing by 38 points to No. 13 Alabama in their season opener, the Pirates fell three points short against Appalachian State at home. Since then, however, East Carolina is 4-2 with wins over Old Dominion, NC Central, Rice and Temple. The only losses in that stretch have come on the road versus UAB and Memphis in overtime.
Quarterback Mitch Griffis may be only six feet tall, but he has played at the FBS level since 2020 and has logged time with Wake Forest, Texas Tech and now ECU. Despite that experience, the 25-year-old is completing just 54.8% of his passes, with four touchdowns, five interceptions and a 107.7 passer rating. That lackluster production led coach Blake Harrell to slot Miami (FL) transfer Emory Williams as his starting signal-caller for a few weeks. After Williams delivered seven touchdowns, two picks, a 62.4% completion percentage and a 130.1 passer rating — albeit on a shorter average depth of target — Harrell has since reinstalled Griffis at the top of the depth chart.
Griffis has 123 rushing yards on the season, ranking just above running back Michael Allen for third on the team. Ashton Gray has also chipped in with 331 yards from scrimmage and two rushing touchdowns, but TJ Engleman Jr. is the Pirates’ true leading back with 760 total yards and six scores on 114 touches. Through the air, Miami (FL) transfer Ray Ray Joseph has a team-high 33 catches, 303 yards and three touchdowns. Brock Spalding, who missed the first half of the season with a back injury, made his 2026 debut against Temple last week and could get more looks moving forward.
Per the opponent-adjusted SP+ efficiency rankings, the Pirates rank No. 105 on offense, No. 61 on defense, and No. 55 on special teams — good for No. 87 overall. ECU ranks 114th in passing yards per game and 116th in team passer rating, so even their 60th-ranked rushing offense couldn’t get them into the top 100 in total offense in the FBS. They do rank 94th in scoring offense, though, and 65th in scoring defense. They are tied for 31st in turnovers forced per game and hold their opponents to the 26th-lowest passer rating in the country.
South Florida
Outside of their 59-17 victory over FCS team Delaware State, the Bulls spent most of September squeaking out gritty wins. They beat FIU by 10 to open the season, then beat Army by four and Bowling Green by eight — both on the road. USF’s fortunes flipped in a four-point loss versus Temple and a seven-point loss at UTSA, but they have since beaten Kent State 29-2 and UAB 30-10 back in Tampa.
South Florida lost starting quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. to an apparent head injury against UAB. If he can’t go on Friday, the Bulls will have Luke Kromenhoek step back in. He completed 7-of-10 passes for 39 yards and took 15 carries for another 92 yards on the ground. The Florida State and Mississippi State transfer owns a 109.6 career passer rating. Van Buren, a Mississippi State and LSU transfer, has a 133.8 passer rating this season with six passing touchdowns and two rushing scores. Thanks to those two, USF is the only team in the country that has yet to throw an interception through Week 9.
Running back D.J. Crowther has been the engine behind the Bulls’ offense this season, with 678 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns on 16.3 touches per game. Jason Collins Jr. has gotten less than half as many chances, but he has still contributed 276 total yards and two scores in relief. Ohio State transfer Bryson Rodgers leads the passing game with 345 yards and two touchdowns on 33 catches, followed closely by junior Joshua Porter with 274 yards and two scores on 23 grabs.
Despite first-year head coach Brian Hartline’s offensive background, the Bulls’ top-10 scoring defense is their biggest strength. Defensive end C.J. Hicks — another transfer who followed Hartline from Ohio State — broke out with 4.0 sacks and two forced fumbles last week. But while USF is tied for ninth in fumble takeaways per game, it has picked off only two passes all season. Ultimately, South Florida enters Friday ranked 56th in SP+ with the No. 44 adjusted defense, No. 44 adjusted special teams and No. 72 adjusted offense.
East Carolina vs. South Florida Pick, Best Bet
Against a top-50 run defense, I don’t see ECU moving the ball well. Even though USF isn’t particularly opportunistic in the passing game, I don’t like betting on the Pirates’ quarterback situation. The Bulls’ own quarterback dilemma is messy, too, but their balance makes them a safer play. They are also 2-1 on the road, with the one loss coming to a 7-1 UTSA squad. If South Florida can beat Army on the road, I trust they can do the same in Greenville on Friday.
I also have my eye on the over at 39.5 points, tied for the second-lowest mark on this weekend’s entire FBS slate. Both teams have cleared that mark in three of their four American games. And yet, if Van Buren can’t go, it’ll probably be an even lower-scoring contest, so making a bet there should be dependent on his status.
