A Friday night clash gets Week 10’s Big Ten slate started in Champaign. Nebraska (5-3, 2-3) has had some close calls this season, inching closer towards a return to national contention. The Cornhuskers will attempt to bolster their record this weekend with a trip to Illinois (5-3, 3-2). It’s been a middling year for the Illini, but this group has an opportunity to pick up a much-needed home victory. Which side will come out on top during tonight’s contest?
The Cornhuskers are listed as 4.5-point favorites over the Fighting Illini, with the total set at O/U 50.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Friday’s Nebraska vs. Illinois Week 10 matchup.
Nebraska vs. Illinois prediction, preview
The Huskers have been snake-bit in recent years, coming up short in statement games. Even though the program is trending in the right direction, this season has been no different. Nebraska has lost by a combined 13 points in one-possession losses to #4 Indiana, #23 Oregon and Washington. Flipping even one of those results would change the conversation in Lincoln. Alas, hypothetical wins don’t count for anything in the standings.
Offense has been the biggest issue this season for head coach Matt Rhule. On paper, it hasn’t been too bad for the Cornhuskers. They’re averaging 32.4 points and 424.9 yards per game, fifth-best in the Big Ten for both categories. Still, those numbers are partially the result of a lackluster non-conference slate. Against conference foes, the school is putting up 24.0 points per game. Nebraska hasn’t surpassed 17 points in any of its previous three losses.
It hasn’t been all bad for Anthony Colandrea at quarterback, but his seven interceptions have held this offense back. Nebraska is averaging just 6.8 yards per pass attempt, fourth-worst in the Big Ten. If there was ever a time to push the ball downfield, it’s Friday. Illinois has been hampered by its subpar secondary. The team is giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt, fourth-most in the conference. It’s not as if things have been much better up front for the Illini. They’re coughing up nearly 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents this season.
Brett Bielema’s crew prefers to take control on the ground. Illinois is averaging an impressive 164.25 rushing yards per game, leaning on one of the nation’s more underrated backfields. Running back Aidan Laughery is the leader of this offense, churning out 560 rushing yards and three total touchdowns. Out of the pocket, Katin Houser has been serviceable but nothing outstanding. He’s thrown for 1,663 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions through eight games. Wide receiver Collin Dixon is responsible for a large chunk of Houser’s production this season. The senior has tallied a team-leading 780 receiving yards and ten touchdowns.
In spite of its offensive ineptitude, Nebraska has hung tough in several high-profile matchups. That’s due to one of college football’s best defensive units. The Huskers are only allowing 270.8 yards per game to opponents, fourth-best in the Big Ten. Inside the trenches, they’ve surrendered a meager three rushing touchdowns. Not exactly ideal for Illinois, a school that loves toting the rock. As an added bonus, Nebraska has racked up the conference’s third-most sacks (23.0) and second-most tackles for loss (56.0).
Best Bet: Nebraska vs. Illinois under 50.5 (-115)
If there’s been one constant in recent weeks for the Cornhuskers, it’s been defense. On the road with a short week of rest, they’ll need that group to be at its best once again. Illinois’ run-first approach could run into some issues against this squad tonight. On the other side, Colandrea’s knack for turning the ball over doesn’t bode well for Friday’s contest. Expect a physical, hard-fought affair in Champaign.
