The NBA Cup continues on Friday, headlined by a Western Conference clash at FedExForum. The Grizzlies (6-2) have been a pleasant surprise, looking the part of a fringe playoff contender. Tonight’s matchup presents a massive early season test for the home team. The Thunder (6-2), even without several key contributors, are eyeing another deep postseason run. Can Oklahoma City keep rolling tonight in Memphis?
The Thunder enter today’s matchup as 3.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies, with the total set at 224.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Friday’s Oklahoma City vs. Memphis contest.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, OKC is shorthanded this evening. Former All-Stars Chet Holmgren (knee) and Jalen Williams (leg) are both out of commission. Making matters worse, stellar role players in Cason Wallace (shoulder) and Jaylin Williams (back) are also sidelined.
Fortunately for the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains one of the best players on Earth. The two-time MVP is on track to earn even more accolades this season. Through eight games, he’s averaging 30.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists while shooting 44.7% from the field. On defense, he’s chipped in with 1.1 blocks and 1.1 steals. In a league filled with stat-stuffers, SGA might be its most prolific at the moment.
The big question for Oklahoma City, at least on offense, is who will serve as Gilgeous-Alexander’s running mate. So far, Ajay Mitchell has done his best Jalen Williams impression. The guard is putting up 17.8 points per game while shooting over 50% on field goal attempts. More production from sharpshooter Jared McCain and veteran Alex Caruso would go a long way on that end of the floor. The Thunder are wielding a lackluster 112.0 offensive rating, only good enough for 18th in the association.
Even a much-vaunted defense seems to have taken a step back. Mark Daigneault’s crew is giving up 108.8 points per game, eighth-best in the NBA. That’s not a bad mark by any means, but this group was utterly dominant on that end of the floor last season. Improved health going forward should help, but it’s clear that this year’s Thunder aren’t quite as stingy.
Memphis is coming off of two straight losses, including a lackluster effort on Wednesday vs. injury-depleted Indiana. Regardless, there’s plenty to like about this roster over the past few weeks. It all starts down low, where third overall pick Cameron Boozer has impressed. The rookie hasn’t shot the ball very well, but he’s doing almost everything else right. He’s accounted for 16.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game. At guard, Ty Jerome continues to turn heads. The eighth-year pro is averaging 27.4 points per game on 50/38/87 shooting splits.
It’s worth noting that the Grizzlies will be without some important depth pieces. Big man Isaiah Stewart (knee) and guard Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) have both been ruled out. That could have an impact on both ends of the court, where this group has been among the sport’s most well-rounded squads. Memphis is fourth in offensive rating (118.9) and fifth in defensive rating (108.3), combining for the NBA’s fourth-best net rating (+10.6). Just as important, the Grizzlies are knocking down a league-leading 40.0% of their three-point attempts. Oklahoma City is allowing the second-most shots per game from long distance (42.4).
Best Bet: Grizzlies ML (+142)
There’s obvious risk backing the underdogs in this spot. After all, the Thunder remain a legitimate postseason threat in the loaded Western Conference. Still, Memphis’ knack for hitting three-pointers could be the great equalizer tonight. That’s without mentioning a potential advantage on the boards for the taller Grizzlies. Add it all up, and I’ll take the healthier home team this evening at plus money.
