Texas rebounded from consecutive losses to get a top-10 win over Ole Miss last Saturday night. Now the Longhorns host Mississippi State in another Saturday night primetime game at 7:30pm ET. Texas is priced as a big 20.5-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 50.5. Here’s my prediction and best bet for the matchup.
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| Spread | Texas -20.5 |
| Moneyline | Texas -1450/Mississippi State +850 |
| Total | 50.5 |
| Prediction | Mississippi State 20 – Texas 31 |
| Best Bet | Mississippi State +20.5 |
Mississippi State vs. Texas prediction
The Longhorns dug deep in absolute desperation spot last Saturday night to get a win over Ole Miss to keep their season alive. The win came after consecutive losses to unranked teams when Texas was at rock bottom. But if the Longhorns want to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive, they’re also going to have to keep winning big games. That means showing up in two upcoming road games at Missouri and LSU the next couple of weeks.
Could Texas be looking right past hosting the Bulldogs this week? Miss State is ravaged with injuries, most notable the bad news that Kamario Taylor has been ruled out for the season. There’s a massive drop off at the QB position, but this could be a scrappy spot for an overlooked road dog.
Texas has played five Power 4 opponents this season — Ohio State and four SEC games. They’ve all been one possession games. The Longhorns have two losses by three points, and the largest margin of the three wins was last week by a touchdown over the Rebs. If we go back further, Texas has not blown out Power 4 competition by three touchdowns.
The Longhorns last 22 games against Power 4 schools have all been decided by less than 21 points. That streak dates back to November of 2024 when they demolished Florida. There’s also probably some revenge on the mind of the Bulldogs in this one. Remember, they should’ve knocked Texas off in Starkville last season. The home dog was up by 17 points entering the fourth quarter, but Texas went on a 24-0 run, scoring 17 to send it to OT and then getting the winning touchdown.
This is just a tough sandwich spot for the Longhorns off the Ole Miss game and looking ahead to Missouri and LSU, both on the road. Meanwhile, Mississippi State should be going all out, with nothing to lose given how overlooked it is with the injuries.
Mississippi State vs. Texas best bet
This one hasn’t made my card yet. I’d love to get +21 to consider adding it. But the only way I could bet this one would be to take the points with the dog.
CFB Lean: Mississippi State +20.5 (-110)
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