There are some great games on the Week 8 NFL slate. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 8.
NFL Week 8 Best Bets: Expert Picks, Predictions and Analysis
Ravens +3 at Bills (-108)
Lamar Jackson is expected to make his return on Sunday. The former MVP has not played since October 4th’s matchup against the Titans. The Ravens are 1-2 without Jackson, and in an incredibly competitive AFC North, they can’t afford to keep dropping games. This is a massive spot against the Bills, a team with whom they’ve battled for playoff positioning and in the postseason over the past few seasons. Jackson will need to outduel another former MVP, Josh Allen, in his return to the field. Before Jackson went down, he was on pace for an MVP-level season. He leads all quarterbacks in adj. EPA/play so far this season.
Both of these quarterbacks are spectacular, and both teams have excellent running backs to complement the passing game. The game should come down to which defense can get more stops. While neither defense has been excellent, the Ravens have been much better than the Bills on that side of the ball. Buffalo ranks 31st in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and 30th in defensive success rate. This should be a back-and-forth battle between two great offenses, but the Baltimore defense should get the key stops needed to win the game. With the Ravens catching a field goal in this spot, they are the right side in the game of the week.
Kyle Pitts Anytime TD (+260) vs. Buccaneers
Kyle Pitts is red hot over the past three weeks. He has five catches in each of those three games and is seeing more and more targets from Michael Penix Jr. Where Pitts has really been a weapon is down in the red zone. Pitts has scored four touchdowns across his past three games, scoring at least once in each of them. This marks the first time in Pitts’ NFL career that he has scored in three straight games. He is already only one touchdown away from matching his single-season career high in receiving touchdowns. Just like he is doing with Drake London, Michael Penix Jr. is bringing out the best in Kyle Pitts.
At 6’6, 250 pounds, Kyle Pitts should be one of the best red zone targets in the NFL. He has just not lived up to that potential so far in his NFL career. Pitts might finally be clicking into place in this Atlanta offense this season. He should keep it going in this matchup against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have a great defense, but one area where they have struggled is against tight ends. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in receiving yards allowed and 28th in receiving touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends. Pitts should be the target that Penix looks to when the Falcons get down into the red zone.
Six-Point Teaser: Falcons +8.5 & Broncos +7.5
The Falcons and Buccaneers should play a tight game in Week 8. Atlanta’s offense has been excellent since Michael Penix Jr. took over in Week 3. During that stretch, they rank third in the NFL in offensive EPA/play and sixth in offensive success rate. The Tampa Bay defense is an identical match, ranking third in defensive EPA/play and sixth in defensive success rate. Those units should almost cancel each other out, which makes the Atlanta defense against the Tampa Bay offense the more intriguing matchup.
Atlanta ranks 13th in defensive EPA/play, while Tampa Bay ranks 28th in offensive EPA/play. That would indicate the Falcons have a big edge in that matchup. Of course, the Buccaneers’ offensive numbers are bit skewed after starting a rookie for several games with Baker Mayfield out. However, overall, the Falcons should be able to keep the Buccaneers’ offense in check. This game seems like a genuine coin flip, so getting the Falcons teased to +8.5 is a great leg to use.
Another great divisional matchup this weekend sees the Broncos host the Chiefs. Kansas City dominated Denver in the Week 1 matchup at Arrowhead, and the Broncos will want their revenge. Denver’s defense has gotten back to its high level since that opening week loss. Since Week 2, Denver ranks third in the NFL in defensive success rate and sixth in defensive EPA/play. Vance Joseph has done a great job against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the past, so he should be able to fix the problems they were having in that first matchup.
The Broncos are always a different team at Mile High. They are 3-0 at home so far this season, and were 8-1 at home last season. This should be a very tight, lower-scoring game, just like last year’s matchup between these teams in Denver, which the Broncos won 22-19. It seems to be a true coin flip in terms of who will win the game, but getting the Broncos over a touchdown at home is an ideal teaser leg.
