It’s been a difficult start for the Heat (1-4), a club looking to make its return to the postseason. Giannis Antetokounmpo and company will have a chance to earn their second win tonight. The Pacers (2-3) are once again without point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Can this short-handed Indiana squad pick up a road win on Friday?
The Heat enter today’s matchup as 8.5-point favorites, with the total set at 237.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Friday’s Indiana vs. Miami contest.
Pacers vs. Heat prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, Haliburton (hamstrong) will be sidelined for at least the next two weeks. That leaves Indiana without its top playmaker. Keep in mind, the All-Star isn’t the only key piece that won’t be taking the floor. Starting center Ivica Zubac (ankle) has already been ruled out, along with depth pieces T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Ben Sheppard (knee). It’s not as if this group has been lighting it up so far, healthy or otherwise. The Pacers own a league-average +0.2 net rating through five games.
Most of this group’s offensive burden will fall on the shoulders of Pascal Siakam. The Cameroonian is one of basketball’s elite power forwards, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. This season, he’s averaging 24.0 points, 8.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game to go with 55/38/62 shooting splits. Still, this offense has been fairly inconsistent. Lackluster shooting from long distance has been an issue. The Pacers are only knocking down 31.2% of their three-point attempts, eighth-worst in the NBA. Even worse, they’ve accounted for the association’s sixth-lowest free throw percentage (72.7%).
Unlike their opposition tonight, the Heat can’t use injuries as an excuse for their struggles. Antetokounmpo has been as advertised, averaging 27.6 points, 11.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game while shooting 57% from the field. Miami’s knack for playing up-tempo has helped in regards to counting stats. Erik Spoelstra’s crew is operating at the sport’s third-quickest pace (104.0). However, his guys haven’t done a good job on both ends of the floor. The Heat own a lackluster 116.1 defensive rating, eighth-worst in the NBA. That’s quite a shock considering the presence of above-average defenders Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins.
Wednesday’s 129-117 win over the Hawks was a step in the right direction for Miami. Given the amount of talent on this roster, it’s likely just a matter of time until the wins start coming. Granted, the Pacers still have an edge in the back court. Guards such as Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith are capable of taking a game over. On the flip side, Zubac’s absence is a major weakness down low. That’s especially true against a tall Heat squad with stellar rebounders.
Best Bet: Heat -8.5 (-115)
For a 1-4 club, this spread might feel a bit too high. However, this evening’s NBA Cup matchup tilts decisively in favor of the home team. Indiana’s injuries are already piling up, and the loss of both Haliburton and Zubac feels like too much to overcome. In comparison, Miami’s inconsistency feels like more of a chemistry issue than a reflection of its talent. In front of their fans, expect a decisive Heat victory on Friday night.
