On Saturday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, at Kingdom Arena, boxing superstar Canelo Alvarez challenges Christian Mbilli for the WBC Super Middleweight Championship. Two more title fights are set for the card: Jaime Munguia vs. Nikita Zon (WBA Super Middleweight) and Rafael Espinoza vs. Ricardo Blandon (WBO Featherweight).
Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of Saturday’s massive boxing event.
Best Bets for Canelo Alvarez vs. Christian Mbilli
- Canelo Alvarez by Decision or Technical Decision (-135): With Canelo coming off a loss, we’ll likely see a different version of him than the one against Crawford. Canelo’s last six wins have come by decision, and I expect to see Canelo with tight-knit defense while picking the perfect moments to get the best of Mbilli.
- Munguia vs. Zon Over 7.5 Rounds (-115): Until Jaime Munguia shows his knockout power again, it is unclear whether he still has the tools to finish high-level opponents.
- Rafael Espinoza to Win in Rounds 1-6 (-250): Rafael Espinoza is a phenomenal power puncher, producing 22 of 24 knockout wins in Rounds 1-6. Blandon has struggled against high-level opponents in the past, and it would be surprising if he could withstand Espinoza’s power.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Christian Mbilli Best Bets Breakdown
Canelo Alvarez by Decision or Technical Decision (-135)
13 months after losing to Terence Crawford, Canelo Alvarez is back! Before his previous defeat, Canelo won six consecutive fights. At Super Middleweight, Canelo has a record of 11-1. This is Canelo’s 68th professional boxing match, and he enters at 63-3-2 with 39 knockouts. Now, Canelo faces the unbeaten WBC Champion, Christian Mbilli. Mbilli has gone 29-0-1 with 24 knockouts but is coming off a draw to Lester Martinez on the Canelo vs. Crawford undercard in September 2025.
On CompuBox, Canelo has the fifth-best plus/minus (13.7) and fourth-best connect percentage (35%) among the current top pound-for-pound fighters. Canelo also ranks fourth in opponent total-connect percentage (21.3%) and power-connect percentage (44.9%).
After Canelo’s first two losses, he did an excellent job bouncing back, and I expect nothing less here. Yes, Canelo came up short in his last fight, but Crawford is a certified legend who is one of the greatest boxers of all time. Canelo was too passive against Crawford and never seemed to implement his offense fully. Mbilli is a supremely skilled boxer, but he has yet to display his full potential on the biggest stage. I expect a vintage Canelo performance, with him as the aggressor and making it hard for Mbilli to get going. Since Canelo’s previous six wins have come by decision, I’m taking him at -135 to win on the judges’ scorecards.
Munguia vs. Zon Over 7.5 Rounds (-115)
In the co-main event of this card, Jaime Munguia defends the WBA Super Middleweight title against Nikita Zon. Since suffering his second career loss in December 2024, Munguia has won two straight fights against Bruno Surace and Armando Resendiz. Zon is currently 12-0-1 with 10 career knockouts. Zon fought to a draw in August 2022 but afterward has scored a knockout in seven of eight fights.
Although Zon’s previous six fights have ended in the first six rounds, this is a big step up in competition for him. Six of Munguia’s last seven bouts have gone over 7.5 rounds. Recently, Munguia has taken a more cautious approach and feels his opponent out before increasing his aggressiveness. Munguia is a massive -1800 favorite with Zon as a +850 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. But my favorite play in this contest is taking the fight to go over 7.5 rounds at -115.
Rafael Espinoza to Win in Rounds 1-6 (-250)
Rafael Espinoza was originally slated to defend the WBO Featherweight title against Lorenzo Parra on this card. But Parra couldn’t be medically cleared, so Ricardo Blandon stepped up on short notice. This is Espinoza’s fifth title defense as he’s been WBO Featherweight Champion since December 2023. Espinoza’s record stands at 28-0 with 24 knockouts, while Blandon is 21-6 with 14 knockouts. Blandon is in the midst of a four-fight winning streak.
Espinoza is a big -3000 favorite, with Blandon being the underdog at +1100. Since Espinoza is also -1400 to score a knockout, I’m taking him to win in Rounds 1-6 at -250. Nine of Espinoza’s previous 12 victories have occurred in the first six rounds. Espinoza has tremendous power and should be able to finish Blandon in the first half, since Blandon hasn’t had enough time to prepare for him.
