The Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards will face off for the second time in five days tonight, with the stakes a little higher this time around. The matchup marks the beginning of Emirates NBA Cup group play, with both teams competing in East Group C alongside the Celtics, Bulls, and Hawks. Charlotte won Monday’s meeting 110-103, but Washington will have a significant addition to its lineup in No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa, who made his NBA debut Wednesday, posting an extremely efficient 19 points on 66% shooting.
As of 6 AM, the Wizards have listed Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic, and Jamir Watkins as Out, while Tre Johnson is Questionable. The Horneys will be without Coby White, Kon Knueppel, and Grant Williams. They’ve listed Dennis Schroder as Questionable.
Tipoff is scheduled for 7 PM ET at Capital One Arena. The Hornets are 1.5 point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a Moneyline of -115 and the total set at 218.5 points.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards preview, prediction
Charlotte enters Friday’s contest with a 3-2 record despite missing several important contributors. The Hornets rank last in the NBA in scoring at just 101 PPG, although their defense has been respectable, allowing 108.2 PPG which is eighth in the league. Brandon Miller has shouldered much of the offensive responsibility, averaging 25.6 PPG. Miller is coming off three consecutive 30 pieces. He dropped a career-high 39 points against Washington on Monday before finishing with a massive double double with 31 points and 12 rebounds in Wednesday’s 97-89 loss to Detroit. Miller has been fantastic, but the Hornets desperately need more scoring contributions from the rest of their rotation. Things will get easier once they get White and Knueppel back, though.
Washington has undergone a substantial transformation following last season’s 17-65 campaign, bringing in Anthony Davis and Trae Young to complement a promising young core. The Wizards are 2-3, averaging 113.6 PPG (17th) while allowing 115.8 (19th). Davis has produced 21.8 PPG and 8.4 RPG, while Young is averaging 20.6 PPG and 10.4 APG. The biggest development, however, is the arrival of Dybantsa.
The first overall pick missed Washington’s opening four games with an ankle injury before debuting against Cleveland on Wednesday. He immediately impressed, leading the Wizards with 19 points on 66% shooting in just 26 minutes. Washington eventually lost 121-111, but Dybantsa’s performance offered an encouraging glimpse of what this team’s offense could look like moving forward.
Hornets at Wizards pick, best bet
Knueppel’s absence has been difficult for the Hornets. The former Duke standout had an exceptional rookie campaign as a ROTY candidate, finishing second in voting behind the Mavericks’ prodigy Cooper Flagg. Knueppel put up 18.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 3.4 APG while shooting a remarkable 42.5% from three on 7.9 attempts per game. His 63.3% TS and +2.8 BPM underscored just how awesome he was offensively.
With Knueppel, Charlotte posted a +6.2 net rating with him on the floor compared to +3.6 without him. Knueppel attempted nearly 60% of his shots from beyond the arc last season, forcing opposing defenders to respect him on the perimeter. Without that shooting threat, defenses can hone in on Miller, crowd driving lanes, and provide more help around the basket. The results haven’t been pretty. Charlotte is shooting just 30.6% from three (25th) through five games, and Miller has accounted for more than a quarter of the team’s scoring. Knueppel’s ability to space the floor at an elite level could open up the rest of their offense. He’s ramping up quickly, and we could see a return by next week.
With that being said, Charlotte still managed to beat the Wizards on Monday, before Dybantsa came back. Dybantsa’s offensive versatility probably swings things in Washington’s favor. Dybantsa’s ability to create his own shot, attack closeouts, and finish around the basket should help relieve some of the pressure on Washington’s veteran stars. Young’s playmaking and Davis’ interior scoring already provide a solid offensive foundation, but adding another athletic, aggressive scorer makes Washington considerably more annoying to defend. Dybantsa’s debut was only one game, but his efficiency and confidence were encouraging.
There is a rebounding gap tonight, though. Charlotte ranks fifth in the NBA with 47.4 RPG, compared to Washington’s 40.0 RPG, which ranks 28th. The Hornets collected 20 offensive rebounds in Monday’s victory, including an incredible 11 from Moussa Diabate. Davis, Alexandre Sarr, and the rest of Washington’s frontcourt will need to do a much better job limiting these if they want to get the win tonight.
Despite the rebounding discrepancy, the Wizards have the more complete offensive roster available, particularly with Schroder’s status uncertain. Charlotte’s defense has been impressive, but its offensive limitations leave little margin for error. With Dybantsa making his home debut and Washington looking to open NBA Cup play with a victory, I like the Wizards to get revenge on their home floor, even as slight underdogs.
