Friday’s a big day in basketball as NBA Cup play begins across 10 matchups in the group stage. One of those is a duel between division rivals who have already met once this year. The Houston Rockets scored a win over the Dallas Mavericks in their respective season openers, but will we see a repeat tonight?
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s Rockets vs. Mavericks matchup in NBA Cup play, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rockets vs. Mavericks prediction, preview
Through five games, it looks like Houston might be legitimate contenders for the title. Alperen Sengun, Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams have all missed at least one game thus far, but the Rockets are unbeaten after downing these Mavericks, the Spurs, the Bucks and the Hawks (twice). They rank second in NETRTG at +14.3 and are playing elite ball on offense, scoring 123.0 PPG (second most) with the No. 1 OFFRTG in the NBA. The efficiency of their scoring stands out at second in FG% (51.7%) and first in 3P% (40.4%), knocking down shots with ease. The presence of VanVleet’s playmaking has truly helped get the offense unstuck in the halfcourt, with the unit averaging 28.4 assists per game, fourth most. Houston’s also averaging 45.0 rebounds and 10.2 steals per game, which rank 12th and fifth in the league. Defensively, this group remains stout with 108.8 PPG allowed and the ninth-ranked DEFRTG.
Sengun (questionable, back) currently leads the team in all three major categories with 24.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game, but his status is in doubt for this game. Kevin Durant is producing 22.4 PPG on a ridiculous 54.0%/50.0%/87.2% shooting split, providing another high-end scoring option. Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. are averaging 18.2 and 16.2 points with 8.0 and 5.8 rebounds apiece. VanVleet brings 12.3 points and 6.5 assists a night. It should be noted that Reed Sheppard (back) and Steven Adams (soleus) have been ruled out tonight while Marcus Smart (forearm) is questionable.
The Mavericks are firmly in the early stages of their rebuild, but the early results this season have been fairly encouraging. New head coach Dusty May has them off to a 3-2 start with some pretty respectable numbers across the board, but the most impressive part is that they downed both the Thunder and Heat in their last two games Dallas is already proving it can compete with potential contenders, a major step forward even if the sample size is quite small thus far. The Mavs are 13th in NETRTG (+2.0) and have been solid on both sides of the ball. They’re scoring 114.0 PPG and are 11th in OFFRTG, giving up 112.0 PPG and ranking 12th in DEFRTG as well. Through five games, this is one of the NBA’s most efficient teams with a 49.1% FG% that ranks third, shooting 34.7% from three as well. They also rank seventh in assists per game (27.6) and first in blocks (7.4), falling 17th in rebounding (44.2).
The NBA’s reigning Rookie of the Year, Cooper Flagg, has been even better than last season with averages of 25.3 points, 6.8 assists and 2.8 steals per game. He seems to be taking the leap Mavs fans hoped for, but he’s not the only star on this roster anymore. Kyrie Irving, who missed all of last season due to injury, is producing 18.0 PPG in his return to the floor. P.J. Washington has also pitched in 16.0 points and 7.8 rebounds per outing, while Naji Marshall (questionable, illness) and Caleb Martin contribute double-digit scoring.
Rockets vs. Mavericks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as a 6.5-point favorite on the road tonight with -238 odds on the Moneyline. The Mavericks are a +195 underdog to win outright with the total set at 224.5 combined points.
We know a little more about these teams than we initially did the first time they met this season. That one ended in a 128-110 win for Houston as the Rockets shot 53.4% from the field and 44.4% from deep, also winning the rebounding battle by eight and bringing in nine more offensive boards. The battle on the boards could be closer tonight if Sengun doesn’t play again, but they did go smaller without him by sliding Smith Jr. to the five and inserting Tari Eason into the starting lineup when the Turkish star missed last game.
This may be a closer game than we saw in the season opener, especially if Sengun doesn’t suit up. However, I still like the Rockets to cover in this matchup. They’ve truly been elite in terms of shooting efficiency, they have a strong defense, and they generally have much more talent than this Dallas roster with more players who can step up to swing a game. They’ve won four of their five games by a margin wider than 6.5 points, with the lone exception the four-point win over the Spurs, who were just in the NBA Finals. I do believe Houston will keep this hot streak rolling here.
