The Clippers are hosting the Lakers on Wednesday night. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Clippers are favored by 1.5 points and this game carries a total of 223.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Clippers vs. Lakers prediction, preview
The Lakers and Clippers meet tonight for the second time in less than a week. These crosstown rivals went head-to-head this past Friday with the Lakers playing host and they came out on top, 125-117. Both teams held double-digit leads, but the Lakers took over in the second half and never looked back.
Austin Reaves led the Lakers with 28 points while Luka Doncic and Walker Kessler finished with 23 and 22 points, respectively. For the Clippers, five players scored double figures with Darius Garland leading the pack with 26 points on 9-of-19 shooting.
Since this matchup, the Clippers have played once, losing to the Thunder on Sunday, 108-101. Meanwhile, the Lakers have played twice and they just picked up their first loss of the season last night vs. the Trail Blazers, 136-129. The Lakers are 3-1 and rank seventh in net rating, whereas the Clippers are 1-2 and rank 12th in net rating.
While the Lakers just beat the Clippers on Friday, the Lakers are going to be a much different team tonight, as Doncic (back) has been ruled out for tonight’s rematch. Ziaire Williams (foot) also has been ruled out.
Doncic is leading the NBA with 36 PPG and a 40.3% usage rate, so his absence creates a huge void for the Lakers. A good portion of Doncic’s usage is going to go directly to Reaves and he should be a one-man show. With Doncic off the floor this season, Reaves’ usage rises 8.8 percentage points to 32.8%. The guard made four starts without Doncic and LeBron James last season and Reaves was a monster in these contests, averaging 39.0 points and 9.5 assists per game. The Lakers, however, were only 2-2 in these games.
Outside of Reaves, Kessler, Collin Sexton and Quentin Grimes should see expanded roles with Doncic out, but none of these players are safe bets. The Lakers should improve on defense with Doncic inactive, but their offense is going to suffer significantly against this underrated Clippers team.
As their No. 12 net rating suggests, the Clippers have been better than their 1-2 record. They dominated the Kings by 25 points in their season opener and then lost to the Lakers and Thunder by single digits. The Clippers rank sixth in defensive rating, but they have struggled on offense, ranking 18th in offensive rating. With Brandon Ingram (heel) sidelined, the Clippers lack legitimate scorers outside of Garland and this team has had major issues protecting the ball, as they rank 30th in turnover rate.
Garland is leading the team with a career-high 24 PPG, but he is averaging 6.0 turnovers per game, which leads the NBA. Garland is averaging a career-high 31.4% usage rate, so he has the ball in his hands more than ever, but you have to expect him to clean it up in the turnover department soon, as he has never averaged more than 3.6 turnovers per game in his career before this season.
The Clippers will be without Rui Hachimura (quad) tonight, who is averaging 10.3 points and 6.0 rebounds per game, but the former lottery pick’s defense has been poor, so Hachimura’s absence likely will be a boost for the Clippers. The team has a -9.5 net rating with Hachimura on the floor, but a +27 net rating with him off. Kobe Sanders should start in place of Hachimura and while Sanders can’t score like Hachimura, Sanders has been a far more impactful defender this season. With Sanders on the floor, the Clippers boast an awesome 89.5 defensive rating.
This well-rested Clippers team should be stout on the defensive end tonight and they should give the Doncic-less Lakers trouble, but will the Clippers provide enough offense to win this game? That we will find out tonight at the Intuit Dome.
Clippers vs. Lakers pick, best bet
While Reaves is likely to put up a big stat line, the Lakers’ offense as a whole should be a mess with Doncic out and this Clippers team that has two extra days of rest in it’s favor should prevail.
The Clippers deserve to be favored by more than 1.5 points and backing them to cover this small spread is a no-brainer. This season, the Clippers are a perfect 3-0 ATS.
