The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday night, with puck drop set for 10:00 p.m. ET at Climate Pledge Arena. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Toronto is a -135 Moneyline favorite on the road, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Kraken vs. Maple Leafs prediction and best bet.
Kraken vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Market | Toronto Maple Leafs | Seattle Kraken |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -135 | +114 |
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+180) | +1.5 (-218) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-120) | Under 6.5 (+100) |
Kraken vs. Maple Leafs Betting Preview
Seattle Kraken Outlook
Seattle enters the matchup with a 7-4-1 record and has had three days off since a 5-1 home loss to Minnesota on Saturday. The Kraken have scored 3.58 goals per game, the seventh-most in the NHL, and have been slightly better on the road (4-2-1) than at home (3-2-0). Kaapo Kakko has been the primary option with 10 points, Jordan Eberle has added nine points and Frederick Gaudreau leads the club with six goals.
Seattle will be without Jared McCann after the team announced Sunday that he will miss approximately 10 weeks with a lower-body injury. The club’s underlying numbers are also a concern at this point, with the Kraken controlling only 43.3% of the expected goals at 5v5, which ranks 28th, and their 41.7% 5v5 Corsi% ranks 31st. Seattle has allowed 31.8 shots per game, the second-most in the NHL, along with 3.66 expected goals per game, the fourth-most. Its penalty kill is tied for 26th at 70.6%. Philipp Grubauer is the expected starter after posting a 4-1-1 record, 2.76 GAA and .907 SV% through six starts, and his +3.4 goals saved above expected ranks 18th of 71 goalies.
Toronto Maple Leafs Outlook
Toronto enters Wednesday night with a 7-5-2 record after its four-game winning streak ended in a 5-2 loss at Calgary on Monday. The Maple Leafs have still scored 3.71 goals per game, the fifth-most in the NHL, including at least five goals in three of their past four outings. Auston Matthews leads the team with 20 points and shares the team lead with William Nylander at nine goals, while Nylander has added 19 points. Morgan Rielly leads Toronto’s blue line with 10 assists.
Given the talent, special teams have been Toronto’s biggest strength thus far. The Maple Leafs own the NHL’s best penalty kill at 93.6% and the fifth-best power play at 28.9%. At 5v5, the team has been less convincing overall, controlling 45.3% of the expected goals (26th) and allowing 30.3 shots per game, tied for the fifth-most in the league. Toronto is still without John Tavares and Chris Tanev, and Kirill Marchenko is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Anthony Stolarz is projected to start for the Maple Leafs tonight after posting a 4-1-0 record, 2.79 GAA and .907 SV% through five starts.
Kraken vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Best Bet
Both of these teams have a habit of trading goals early. Seattle has found the back of the net in the first period in 10 of its 12 games, and Toronto has allowed at least one first-period goal in 12 of its 14. The real question is whether Toronto answers before the first intermission. The Maple Leafs have scored in the opening frame in eight of 14 games, and Seattle has given up a first-period goal in eight of 12. Both teams have scored in the first period in 12 of their combined 26 games, and the Kraken have seen it happen in four of their past six outings.
A low-event start from either side will kill this, and both projected goaltenders, Stolarz and Grubauer, carry .907 save percentages. With two of the league’s top-seven offenses facing defenses that rank among the NHL’s worst at limiting shots, I like the plus-money price for both teams to get on the board early.
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score in 1st Period: Yes (+130)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
