In 2022/23, Jaren Jackson Jr. won his first Defensive Player of the Year award after leading the NBA in blocks per game. Just a few months later, though, Jackson’s hopes of winning future DPOY’s and block titles might’ve come to an end, as Victor Wembanyama entered the league.
Tonight’s 9 p.m. ET matchup between Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs and Jackson’s Utah Jazz was supposed to mark the first matchup between the two since Wembanyama claimed his first DPOY and Jackson was traded to Utah, but Jackson will miss tonight’s game after tearing his MCL in Monday’s defeat against his old team, the Memphis Grizzlies.
In addition to Jackson, the Jazz have a few other notable names on their injury report. Trey Alexander (G-League), Kobe Bufkin (G-League), Harrison Ingram (G-League), and Jusuf Nurkić (foot) are out, with Lauri Markkanen (wrist) and Jaxson Hayes (shoulder) both questionable. San Antonio’s two absent players, Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee), have missed the entire season to this point.
The Spurs are 13.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-650 Moneyline), with the point total set to 233.5. Utah is +470 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer a prediction.
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz preview, prediction
Fresh off of an appearance in the NBA Finals, San Antonio ran it back, bringing in Harris and a couple of backup big men in the offseason but otherwise returning its entire Finals rotation. The Spurs’ bigger change came within the structure of that rotation, as Dylan Harper now starts alongside both Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox. So far, it’s been a mixed bag; although San Antonio has had the ninth-best offense and the 11th-best defense, it lost to both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets and has been out-scored in Harper-Castle-Wembanyama minutes without Fox, per databallr. Wembanyama has looked better with each successive game, which is just as well; the team has been throttled in non-Wemby minutes.
Meanwhile, the Jazz entered the season with high hopes after dealing for Jackson and adding Darryn Peterson with the second overall pick, but so far, they rank 17th in offensive rating and 25th in defensive rating after ranking 22nd and 29th last season. Peterson has been rather inefficient (36-33-86 shooting splits), although the other members of Utah’s young core, guard Keyonte George and forward Ace Bailey, have looked excellent and poised for further growth. The Jazz’s depth, especially on the interior, has been poor, which could be especially problematic over the next six weeks with Jackson sidelined.
Spurs at Jazz pick, best bet
With Jackson out and Hayes questionable, tonight’s game might be the contest with the biggest conceivable gulf in interior play. This season, the Spurs have attempted the most restricted-area tries per game and Utah the second-fewest, with Wembanyama individually leading the league in close-range tries per game. Harper also ranks 16th in that category. Defensively, the Jazz haven’t allowed many shots in the restricted area (in part because they’ve faced the perimeter-oriented Grizzlies twice), but opponents have been pretty accurate on such looks. Utah’s likely starting center tonight, Hayes, ranked in the 15th percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions last season, and Wembanyama’s rim protection speaks for itself.
Last season, San Antonio ranked sixth in the league in rebounding percentage and the Jazz 19th, but so far this campaign, Utah has actually posted a higher total rebounding percentage. It could lose some of that edge without Jackson, although his impact on rebounding throughout his career has been mixed at best. The Spurs have been among the best transition teams in the league this season and the Jazz among the worst, and while the sample size is small, I’d expect San Antonio to maintain that edge, given the ball-handling stability that Fox provides. I’d also expect the Spurs to be more disciplined, although Utah has done an exceptional job getting to the charity stripe so far, thanks in large part to George’s relentless game.
Neither of these teams has elite shooters, but San Antonio’s perimeter defense edge is significant enough that it should be have the overall advantage in perimeter play. The Spurs have at least been better than the Jazz at generating wide-open threes in both 2025/26 and the start of 2026/27, in large part because Wembanyama’s gravity opens up the floor, and I’d expect Harper (28.6% from deep so far this season) and Wembanyama (21.1%) to improve as three-point shooters sooner rather than later. Both teams allowed tons of uncontested triples last campaign, but San Antonio has cleaned up its closeouts more than Utah has. Wembanyama is also capable of affecting even wide-open shots, utilizing his eight-foot wingspan and 32-inch vertical to block the shooter’s view of the basket.
I expect the Spurs to start this game hot, with Wembanyama dominating the interior on both ends of the floor. It’s possible that the Jazz could stay in the game if they get hot from beyond the arc, but they simply have no way to stop Wembanyama. He hasn’t had a signature offensive performance yet this season, but it could come tonight. It’s possible that Utah wins the second half if Mitch Johnson pulls Wembanyama early, but I expect San Antonio to win the first half by double digits.
