Four days after blowing a 23-point lead in Denver, the New Orleans Pelicans get a chance to redeem themselves against the Nuggets. New Orleans fell 141-135 in overtime Saturday, dropping to 0-3 despite losing each game by six points or fewer. Denver hasn’t fared much better this season at 1-2, and its defensive issues have already become difficult to ignore.
These teams meet Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center, with DraftKings Sportsbook listing Denver as a 4.5-point favorite (-115), Moneyline odds of -198 for Denver and +164 for New Orleans, and a total of 240.5.
The Nuggets are likely to remain without Cameron Johnson (ankle), who is doubtful, while Julian Strawther (knee) and Spencer Jones (hamstring) are out. Yves Missi (knee) remains sidelined for New Orleans, although Jordan Poole has been cleared to play despite an illness.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans preview, prediction
Denver’s only win required quite the escape. Jamal Murray poured in 42 points with eight triples on Saturday, while Nikola Jokic went for 35 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists to erase a massive deficit. The Nuggets couldn’t sustain that momentum Monday, falling 134-114 to Golden State after allowing the Warriors to hit 22 of 44 three-point attempts. Through three games, Denver has surrendered 121.7 PPG and owns a 121.5 defensive rating, ranking 27th in the NBA. Its offense hasn’t been particularly sharp, either, scoring 113.0 PPG while shooting 34.5% or worse from deep in each outing. DeMar DeRozan has helped the second unit, scoring 21 against Golden State, but injuries have left coach David Adelman searching for dependable rotations. They’ll need Cam Johnson back soon.
New Orleans has been much more productive offensively than its record suggests, averaging 124.7 PPG, third-most in the league, with a 117.7 offensive rating. Zion Williamson is averaging 20.7 PPG, while Dejounte Murray has provided 20.3 PPG and 6.3 APG. Trey Murphy III led the way against Denver with 26 points, and Derik Queen contributed 17 points and eight rebounds. The Pelicans have their own defensive problems, allowing 128.0 PPG, second-most in the NBA. Without Missi, DeAndre Jordan and Queen will continue handling much of the work at the center position. We could very well be seeing a shootout tonight, with this game tied for the highest projected point total on the slate.
Nuggets at Pelicans pick, best bet
The first meeting gave us an idea of how New Orleans can attack Denver tonight. The Pelicans scored 70 points in the paint compared with the Nuggets’ 56, and they outscored Denver 23-12 in fast-break points. It wasn’t simply a matter of unsustainable outside shooting, either. New Orleans made just 11 of 38 three-point attempts, yet still dropped 135 points on the road. The Pelicans consistently found ways to get downhill, creating efficient looks around the basket while forcing Denver’s defenders to react.
Jokic is obviously the best player in this matchup, but he’s been vulnerable on defense. Jokic is facing 10.7 opponent field-goal attempts per game within six feet, the most among centers, with opponents shooting 68.8% on those looks. For comparison, Joel Embiid and Walker Kessler have allowed 48.3% and 57.1%, respectively. That doesn’t mean Jokic is personally responsible for every basket, and three games are too few to draw sweeping conclusions. Still, it’s a concerning early sign for a Nuggets defense that ranks near the bottom of the league, particularly against a team with Williamson’s power and Murray’s ability to penetrate. Queen’s touch inside gives New Orleans another way to challenge Denver’s interior coverage. To be fair to Jokic, he is averaging a ludicrous 2.3 BPG currently, more than tripling his career-average. But this is likely just due to the number of shot blocking attempts he’s getting, since players are directly, and successfully, challenging him near the rim.
There are legitimate reasons Denver is still favored. Jokic dominated New Orleans on Saturday, and the Pelicans’ inability to protect a 23-point lead exposed execution problems down the stretch. Their first half 65.9% shooting isn’t something they can rely on. However, Denver needed an exceptional performance from Murray just to force overtime, and New Orleans now gets the rematch at home after three days off, compared with Denver’s Monday game.
I don’t necessarily trust the Pelicans to close out a win against Jokic. But their offensive production and clear advantage attacking the paint give them a strong opportunity to keep this close.
