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Is AJ Dybantsa a must-start DFS value in his NBA debut?

Is AJ Dybantsa a must-start DFS value in his NBA debut?

NBA DraftKings Fantasy Advice

Published:

By: Alex Hunter

AJ Dybantsa ($6,200) missed the Wizards’ first four games of the season with an ankle injury, but the No. 1 overall pick from this past NBA Draft will make his anticipated debut Wednesday vs. the Cavaliers.

Dybantsa is priced at an affordable $6,200 on DraftKings for his NBA debut, but should DFS players be considering the rookie tonight?

Dybantsa’s Fantasy Outlook

Dybantsa was incredible in his lone season at BYU last year. The 6’9″ forward averaged 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 51% from the field. Dybantsa struggled with his outside shot, shooting 33% from beyond the arc, but the versatile forward was an elite slasher and shot creator that led the Big 12 with a huge 33.9% usage rate.

Dybantsa competed in the Wizards’ four preseason games and while he didn’t put up numbers like he did at BYU, the rookie was solid, averaging 12.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists in 21.5 minutes per game.

Dybantsa has tremendous potential, but there are concerns about him in his NBA debut. First off, it’s hard to imagine the Wizards just throw their No. 1 pick right into the fire and give Dybantsa a big workload with him coming off an ankle injury. The forward will likely be limited to around 25 minutes.

Plus, while Dybantsa was a usage monster in college, it’s highly unlikely the 19-year-old sees even close to the 33.9% usage rate he saw at BYU in the NBA. Dybantsa saw a 24% usage rate in the preseason and he likely will average a lower rate this season, playing alongside ball-dominant players like Anthony Davis and Trae Young on a nightly basis.

Then, there’s the nerves factor. Dybantsa is only 19 years old and he will be making his NBA debut on the road in Cleveland tonight against a Cavaliers defense that ranks 12th in rating this season.

Dybantsa may struggle in this spot and expecting him to outproduce his $6,200 salary on DraftKings with over five-times value is unreasonable. Will there be many nights Dybantsa stands out as a DFS target this season? Absolutely. But, in his NBA debut and at this price tag, fading the rookie tonight is the right move.

Alex Hunter
Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player and sports handicapper, who has been a proud member of the DraftKings Network team since 2020. He is a data-driven analyst, who earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has been in the sports content business for nearly a decade, covering the NBA, NFL and PGA TOUR. Alex is a diehard Boston Celtics fan, who loves to be on the golf course when he isn’t grinding lineups or producing content. For all of Alex’s work or if you need any lineup advice, be sure to follow him @Hunta512 on X.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.