Tipping off during the opening window of tonight’s 12-game NBA slate, the Charlotte Hornets will face off with the Detroit Pistons.
After finishing with the best record in the Eastern Conference last season, the Detroit Pistons are off to a 3-1 start this year and are tied for the top spot in the standings. The Charlotte Hornets underwent a notable facelift this offseason by trading LaMelo Ball, but they have gotten off to a 3-1 start themselves. This is the first of four matchups between these two teams, and they will face off again on Monday in Charlotte after meeting in Detroit tonight.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Pistons enter as 7.5-point favorites with -290 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hornets hold +235 odds to pull off the outright win, with the game total set at 213.5 points.
Hornets vs. Pistons Preview
It has been an encouraging start to the season for the youthful Charlotte Hornets. They are off to a 3-1 start, with victories over the Nets, Heat, and Wizards. Their lone loss came in a 128-81 rout against the Atlanta Hawks, but they will look to recapture the momentum of back-to-back wins following that blowout. Charlotte is 3-1 against the spread, with the matchup against the Hawks being the lone time it failed to cover, and the game total has stayed under in all four contests.
After largely establishing an identity as a high-powered offensive attack last season behind LaMelo Ball, the Hornets have shown early signs of a major identity shift. Through the opening four games, Charlotte ranks last in scoring at 104.0 points per game. They also rank 27th in offensive rating, 29th in field goal percentage, 27th in three-point percentage, and 26th in pace. Defensively, the Hornets rank 11th in opponents’ points allowed, 18th in defensive rating, 17th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 23rd in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Brandon Miller headlines the production with 24.3 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. Naz Reid has made a positive impact in his first four games with the franchise, averaging 19.5 points and 9.5 rebounds. Grayson Allen adds 16.8 points per game while shooting 48.3% from beyond the three-point arc. The only other player averaging double figures is Dennis Schroder, who is recording 14.0 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game. Moussa Diabate, Sion James, and Ryan Kalkbrenner also play key roles.
Injuries have been a factor in Charlotte’s inability to reach its offensive peak. Kon Knueppel has yet to make his season debut due to a hamstring injury, while Grant Williams has been sidelined with a hamstring injury of his own. Coby White has also yet to make his season debut as he continues to recover from a calf injury.
The Detroit Pistons took a major step forward last season, earning the top spot in the Eastern Conference with a 60-22 record. They have picked up where they left off, getting off to a 3-1 start with wins over the Celtics, Heat, and 76ers. Their lone loss came Tuesday night against the New York Knicks, meaning tonight’s game will be the second half of a back-to-back for Detroit. The Pistons are 3-1 against the spread, while their over/under record is split at 2-2.
Through the opening four games, the Pistons rank 18th in the NBA in scoring at 113.0 points per game. They also rank 11th in offensive rating, 16th in field goal percentage, and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 107.0 points per game against Detroit, which ranks among the league’s best marks. The Pistons also rank ninth in defensive rating, third in opponents’ field goal percentage, and ninth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Cade Cunningham carries a massive offensive load and is averaging 20.8 points, 8.0 assists, and 5.8 rebounds through his first four games. Jalen Duren is the expected co-star, but has suited up for just two games and will remain sidelined as he recovers from a hamstring strain. Isaiah Joe will also miss tonight’s game with a right hip contusion, while Ausar Thompson is expected to play despite an ankle injury.
Duncan Robinson is contributing 17.8 points per game while launching a team-high 9.5 three-point attempts and connecting at a 44.7% rate. John Collins has made an impressive impact in his first four games with the franchise, averaging 11.8 points and 8.0 rebounds. Paul Reed has also done a nice job scaling up his role while Duren has been sidelined, averaging 13.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Daniss Jenkins is also averaging double figures, while Kevin Huerter, Javonte Green, and Ron Holland play notable roles.
Hornets vs. Pistons Pick, Best Bet
It does not feel sustainable for the Hornets to continue picking up wins with their current offensive output. There is reason for optimism that the offense will reach a much higher level once players like Coby White and Kon Knueppel return to the floor. However, that will not be the case tonight, and the pathway for Charlotte to score at the same pace as Detroit is narrow. My lean is toward the Pistons maintaining their place near the top of the Eastern Conference and covering the 7.5-point spread tonight.
However, I am backing the game total to stay under the game total 213.5 as my best bet. While it remains to be seen whether Charlotte can maintain its defensive-minded identity, Detroit has proven capable on that end of the floor, which was a driving force behind its success last season. The Pistons have not allowed more than 113 points in a game this season and have held opponents to as few as 93. It is a difficult spot for any team to play the second half of a back-to-back, but expect Detroit to be eager to wipe the sour taste out of its mouth after losing to the Knicks last night. The Knicks outscored the Pistons 63-25 across the second and third quarters, and a late surge from Detroit was not enough to secure a positive result.
Expect a focused effort from the Pistons as they look to set the tone defensively in their return home. They finished last season ranked third in opponents’ points allowed and second in defensive rating, with much of the same personnel still in place. There is another gear this Detroit offense can reach, and that could be evident against a Hornets team that itself ranks last in scoring this season.
However, Charlotte has shown some impressive defensive flashes of its own and will be capable of slowing down Detroit’s attack. As talented as Cunningham is as the lead offensive option, he has to carry a massive load, and Detroit has yet to establish consistent offensive support around him. If the Hornets can slow down Cunningham, the pathway to Detroit scoring at a high rate becomes much more difficult.
213.5 is a low-scoring total in today’s NBA, but one that I expect that these teams have no issue remaining under based on the context of these two teams. Count on both defenses showing up in this matchup and for this total to be too lofty, with the limited scoring options of each side in mind.
