The Toronto Raptors entered the 2026/27 season hoping for shades of 2018/19. With Kawhi Leonard back in the building, the Raptors have championship aspirations after last season’s over-performing team finished fifth in the Eastern Conference and only narrowly lost in the first round.
However, Leonard is set to miss the next several weeks as he deals with swelling in his left knee, leaving Scottie Barnes to continue carrying the load without him in a pivotal early-season stretch that contains most of the group stage of the Emirates NBA Cup, a competition that did not exist in Leonard’s first Raptors stint. Tonight’s 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Orlando Magic at Scotiabank Arena will serve as a warm-up for the NBA Cup, as Toronto will begin Cup play at the same venue against the same opponent on Friday.
Leonard is the only notable name on the Raptors’ injury report, as Nate Bittle (foot) and Malachi Smith (G-League) likely wouldn’t be in Toronto’s rotation even if they were healthy. Orlando, meanwhile, has been hit with the injury bug yet again: Paolo Banchero (ankle), Jonathan Isaac (knee), Izaiyah Nelson (ankle), Noah Penda (hamstring), and Jalen Suggs (knee) are all out, with Anthony Black (personal) questionable.
Even without Leonard, the Raptors are 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-192 Moneyline), with the point total set to 224.5. The Magic are +160 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down tonight’s NBA Cup preview and offer a prediction.
Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors preview, prediction
Orlando was 0-2 when Banchero got hurt in his team’s blowout loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, but it subsequently picked up its first win of the season against the New York Knicks on Sunday night (a game in which Suggs went down with a non-contact knee injury, ruling him out for at least two weeks with a bone bruise). Despite swapping out Jamahl Mosley for Sean Sweeney as head coach, the Magic largely ran back the same roster that finished last season 18th in offensive rating and 13th in defensive rating, hoping for better health for Banchero, Suggs, and Franz Wagner, who missed a combined 83 games last season.
The Leonard trade aside, Toronto also didn’t make many drastic moves during the offseason. Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl still comprise the core of the Raptors’ roster, as Brandon Ingram (the centerpiece of the Leonard deal) struggled in the playoffs and Gradey Dick had fallen out of the rotation by the end of the season. Last season, Toronto had the league’s 15th-best offense and its fifth-best defense, so I expect similar rankings this season, especially since it was 5.9 points per 100 possessions better overall without Ingram.
Magic at Raptors pick, best bet
Both teams were pretty good at slashing last season — Orlando attempted the seventh-most restricted-area tries per game and the Raptors the ninth-most — but I’d give Toronto the edge tonight. Ingram didn’t get to the rim very frequently in 2025/26, and neither did Leonard, but Banchero averaged more than six such tries per game despite not finishing very efficiently. Last season, the Magic did a better job stopping opponents from getting to the basket, but the Raptors held their opponents to a lower percentage on such looks. This season, Toronto has been better at preventing both attempts and makes at the rim, and it has by far the best individual defender on either team (Barnes) on its roster, especially with Suggs out.
Last season, Orlando had a higher total rebounding percentage than the Raptors, but so far this campaign, Toronto has been slightly more effective on the glass. In the long run, the Magic could have the edge; Ingram made a slightly positive impact on the Raptors’ total rebounding percentage last season, and Banchero and Suggs had a negative impact on Orlando. Toronto also operates a lot of small-ball minutes, with Murray-Boyles or Barnes serving as the de facto center. Where the Raptors should be able to make up for that margin some is in transition; they were arguably the league’s best transition team last season. Both teams have foul concerns, although Banchero’s absence could hurt the Magic’s ability to get to the charity stripe.
Both of these teams have some shooting questions, although Toronto’s would’ve been assuaged if Leonard remained healthy. In 2025/26, these teams finished 21st and 27th in three-point percentage, and neither produced many wide-open looks. The Raptors are definitely bound for some positive regression — they have made just 26.2% of their threes this season, with Barrett, Barnes, and Leonard all below 30% — but Orlando’s shooters haven’t exactly been lighting it up, either (Desmond Bane is at 28.6% and Wagner at 17.6%). Toronto should have the slight edge, since it did a better job closing out on opposing shooters last season and since the Magic will be missing Suggs, who ranked in the 68th percentile in total contests per 100 possessions in 2025/26.
This game could be close, given that Orlando has been better without Banchero on the court in each of his five NBA seasons and Leonard trailed only Victor Wembanyama in on-off impact last season. If forced to pick a winner, I’d take the Raptors, especially since they have historically had a strong home-court advantage and the Magic struggled without Suggs last season. However, given each team’s shooting struggles, the most stable play is to back both teams’ defenses. Each of Toronto’s three games this season and two of Orlando’s have finished under the total, and even without Leonard, the Raptors have plenty of elite defenders.
