For a moment, it really seemed like Cooper Pratt was going to be a World Series hero. However, one 12th inning blown save later, and we’ve still got a little baseball left in the 2026 season.
After that dramatic comeback in Game 4, the Rays will now look to send this series back to Milwaukee with another win in Game 5. That said, it’ll be a tough task, as Tampa is currently a +134 home dog on the DraftKings Sportsbook, going up against NL Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski.
This contest gets going at 8:00 p.m. ET. Let’s break it down and make a couple of picks, shall we?
Rays vs. Brewers pick, best bets today
- Under 6.5 (+100): Even if Jacob Misiorowski hasn’t been his best, every postseason game he’s started has still finished under this number, because a watered down version of Misiorowski is still pumping 100 mph fastballs that confound the human mind. I also don’t want to sell Drew Rasmussen short, even if he’ll be pitching on short rest.
- Liam Hicks First Plate Appearance: In Play Out (-115): Hicks has struggled to an 86 wRC+ in the postseason, but I’ll at least trust him to make contact against Misiorowski. History is on his side, as Hicks only struck out in 8.6% of his plate appearances versus RHPs during the regular season. Overall, his 11.4% whiff rate ranked in the 98th percentile of the league.
Rays vs. Brewers prediction, preview
If there’s an added bonus of this World Series getting extended on Tuesday night, it’s that we all get another chance to see Jacob Misiorowski pitch. Or, framed in different way, it’s another opportunity for the man who was the best pitcher in baseball during the regular season to have a real, tangible impact on this historic postseason run for the Brewers.
I know it sounds harsh to knock a starter who has managed a 2.70 ERA and a 2.12 FIP during the playoffs, but the standard that Misiorowski has set for himself is so damn high at this point. The fact that the right-hander has yet to work past the fifth inning in any of his three appearances, or that his strikeout rate has fallen to just 25.5% — it’s all a little underwhelming. Consider that in Game 1 of this series, Nick Martinez generated more whiffs (10) than Misiorowski (7). That’s a starter with a second percentile whiff rate getting the better of a starter with a 99th percentile whiff rate. Was October 23 “Opposite Day” and no one decided to tell me about it?
Now, part of the explanation here is also a credit to the Rays’ lineup constriction. While Tampa ranked near or at the bottom of the league in hard hit rate (34.4%), expected slugging percentage (.371) and ISO (.143), the trade-off was a team that rarely swung and missed. To wit, the Rays possessed MLB’s lowest strikeout rate (18.8%) and lowest swinging strike rate (8.6%). It’s a style of attack that we saw really benefit the club in the 12th inning of Game 4, when Liam Hicks, Chandler Simpson and Ben Williamson were all able to just put the ball in play and take advantage of a leadoff error.
As for Tampa’s pitching plan, things were up in the air for most of the afternoon, as the aforementioned Martinez was used for two innings of relief on Tuesday. However, that will set up Game 2 starter Drew Rasmussen to toe the bump on short rest, after the veteran threw 89 pitches in Game 2 on Saturday. For what it’s worth, Rasmussen has clearly been in the mindset of starting this game since last night:
It’s a big moment and a big stage for a pitcher who probably isn’t celebrated enough. Rasmussen was dominant across 172.0 innings during the regular season, maintaining a 2.67 ERA and a 2.81 FIP. However, the veteran’s track record is far longer than a single successful campaign. Going back to the beginning of 2021, among pitchers with at least 500 innings thrown, Rasmussen’s 2.76 ERA is the third-lowest mark in baseball, trailing only Shohei Ohtani and Chris Sale. In the mind of the general public, Rasmussen isn’t thought of in the same regard as those two studs, but don’t be fooled by the lack of hype, the man is a true ace.
