The Calgary Flames visit the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday night, with puck drop set for 8:30 p.m. ET at Rogers Place. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Edmonton is a -192 Moneyline favorite, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Oilers vs. Flames prediction and best bet.
Oilers vs. Flames Odds
| Market | Calgary Flames | Edmonton Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +160 | -192 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+130) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-112) | Under 6.5 (-108) |
Oilers vs. Flames Betting Preview
Edmonton Oilers Outlook
Edmonton enters tonight’s matchup with an 8-2-2 record, but it has dropped its past two games on home ice, a 7-2 loss to Toronto on Saturday and a 4-3 shootout loss to Detroit on Monday. The Oilers are a perfect 5-0-0 on the road and just 3-2-2 at home, yet they still lead the NHL at 4.25 goals per game. Connor McDavid leads the league with 26 assists and 34 points, while Leon Draisaitl has a team-high 12 goals and 24 points. Evan Bouchard has added 21 points from the blue line, and Vasily Podkolzin has scored eight goals skating alongside McDavid and Draisaitl on the top line.
Edmonton’s power play has done much of the damage, converting at an NHL-best 35.0%. At 5v5, the underlying numbers are far less impressive: the Oilers have controlled 48.5% of the expected goals, which ranks 20th, and they have generated 3.03 expected goals per game across all situations, good for 21st in the NHL. Defensively, Edmonton has allowed 3.50 goals per game, tied for the fifth-most in the NHL, and its penalty kill ranks tied for 26th at 70.6%. Zach Hyman is day-to-day, while Mattias Ekholm is expected to return to the lineup after clearing concussion protocol. With Devon Levi and Frederik Andersen both on injured reserve, Tristan Jarry is expected to start between the pipes after posting a 2-1-2 record, 3.53 GAA and .868 SV% through five starts. He has allowed eight goals on 58 shots across his past two outings, and his -6.2 goals saved above expected ranks 68th of 71 goalies.
Calgary Flames Outlook
Calgary enters Wednesday night with a 5-6-0 record, but it has won four straight after a rough 1-6-0 start, most recently beating Toronto 5-2 on Monday. The Flames have allowed only six goals during the streak, all four games of which came at home. Calgary is just 1-3-0 on the road this season and has scored 2.55 goals per game, tied for 27th in the NHL. Joel Farabee leads the Flames with 11 points, including eight assists, and skates on the top line with Mikael Backlund and Matt Coronato. Coronato has added 10 points, while Matvei Gridin leads the team with four goals. Calgary remains without Jonathan Huberdeau, but its power play ranks fourth in the NHL at 30.0%, which sets up quite well against Edmonton’s poor penalty kill.
It has been the Devin Cooley show in Calgary, and he’s led this turnaround. He started all four games of the winning streak, stopping 127 of 133 shots for a blistering .955 SV%, and he sports a 4-2-0 record, 2.67 GAA, .915 SV% and +2.4 goals saved above expected on the season. The Flames still have allowed 3.73 goals per game as a team, the second-most in the NHL, along with 30.4 shots per game, the fourth-most. They also own the league’s second-worst 5v5 goal share at 32.6%, despite controlling 51.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts.
Oilers vs. Flames Prediction and Best Bet
Edmonton has the star power and the far more productive offense, but laying -192 with a struggling goaltender is not really my style. Eight of Edmonton’s 12 games have gone over 6.5, and its games have averaged 7.92 total goals. Both teams rank in the top five in goals allowed per game, and Calgary’s fourth-ranked power play takes on an Oilers penalty kill that sits tied for 26th in the NHL.
Cooley has been locked in during Calgary’s winning streak, and that is the biggest risk to this pick. Still, Jarry has struggled all season, and Edmonton’s offense has scored at least four goals in seven of its 12 games. With the total set at O/U 6.5, I’m backing Edmonton’s offense and Calgary’s power play to result in a high-scoring affair.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Total Goals (-112)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
