New Mexico State running back James Jones has been magnificent, running for 155 yards against Western Kentucky earlier this month and 178 on 27 carries last week at Sam Houston. Coach Tony Sanchez should hand him the ball again and again Wednesday. Jacksonville State just let FIU convert eight of 15 third downs. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the New Mexico State Aggies and the Jacksonville State Gamecocks.
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NMSU vs. Jacksonville State prediction, preview
Quarterback Adam Damante found receiver AJ Williams III for two touchdowns at Sam Houston, where the Aggies scored 30 points. Sanchez still needs much steadier passing between those finishes. Damante squeezed 160 yards from 29 attempts and New Mexico State converted just two of 12 third downs. At FIU, he completed nine of 22 while the Aggies scored three points, despite Jones running for 89 yards on 15 carries. At Sam Houston, the Aggies even turned third-and-two into third-and-seven with a false start, then punted after Damante threw incomplete.
Jacksonville State quarterback Caden Creel threw for 311 yards in the 27–26 win at Kennesaw State while the Gamecocks managed only 74 rushing. Jacksonville State scored on touchdown drives of 75, 71 and 75 yards. Against FIU, with running backs Jalen Likely and Cedric Kouemi missing, he threw for 214 yards and ran for 95 himself. Coach Charles Kelly says the 15-day break helped his injured players, and he expects most of them back against New Mexico State. Running back Justus Savage also ran for 44 yards on seven carries against FIU.
New Mexico State defensive end Gabe Peterson has 5.5 sacks this season, and the Aggies sacked Western Kentucky six times. Kelly’s blockers have allowed only seven sacks through seven games. I expect Creel to get time to find wideout Deondre Johnson, who caught four passes for 112 yards at Kennesaw and four for 93 against FIU. Kelly should let Creel take those chances downfield again, particularly with injuries forcing changes at safety and nickel.
Jacksonville State vs. NMSU pick, best bet
Sanchez has moved freshman Xavier Rucker from running back to safety after injuries thinned his safeties and nickel defenders. Kelly also has tight end Luke Gilbert, who caught three passes for 55 yards and a touchdown against FIU. New Mexico State has to cover him as well as Johnson while accounting for Creel as a runner. The Aggies did allow Western Kentucky to throw for 315 yards while holding them to 13 points.
Jacksonville State still converted only three of ten third downs against FIU. On third-and-13, though, Creel found wideout Ronnel Johnson for 34 yards during the 82-yard drive to the winning field goal. New Mexico State began three touchdown possessions at Sam Houston’s one, 43 and 27, driving 60 yards for the other. At Aggie Memorial Stadium, I prefer Creel to sustain the passing when both offenses have to cross the field. I’ll lay the field goal.
Best bet: Jacksonville State -3 (-115).
Projected score: Jacksonville State 27, New Mexico State 20.
Best Bet: Jacksonville State -3 (-115) vs. NMSU
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