The Minnesota Vikings are on an absolute roll. After taking down the Colts in Week 7, the Vikings are the lone undefeated team in the NFL and are going to take some stopping. But their success has come with an unexpected twist: Justin Jefferson is struggling to produce in fantasy. Is it time to take a swing on a fantasy trade for Minnesota’s star receiver, or is he better off left on the trade block?
Year-to-Date Production
A proven receiver getting a new quarterback is never a sure thing. Justin Jefferson has sure had a rotation of quarterbacks in the past few seasons, going from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold to JJ McCarthy and finally settling on Kyler Murray. With Minnesota’s defense-first, ball-control mentality, it was hard to say if Jefferson could continue his WR1 ways with Kyler under center.
After Week 1, those concerns felt asinine. After all, Jefferson drew nine targets, catching eight of them for 92 yards and a pair of scores. That was enough for a WR3 overall finish, and owners felt confident. Since then, things have gotten a bit ugly. Let’s look at Jettas’ receiving lines since Week 1
- 3/55/0
- 2/32/0
- 0/0/0 (injured)
- 6/79/1
- 4/44/0
That’s one WR1-ish week, and three weeks that barely count as FLEX territory. The Vikings keep on winning, but Jefferson fantasy owners are drowning.
So, does that mean it’s time to float an offer, or should we hold off? Let’s look at the outlook for the rest of his season before making a call.
Rest of Season Outlook
Here’s the good news for Jefferson: Five of his first six matchups came against teams with better-than-average defenses against the pass. In fact, his lone matchup against a subpar passing defense—the Packers—came in Week 1, when he got red-hot and tallied two touchdowns. And when you look at the remainder of his schedule, there’s a whole lot of green ahead.
Jefferson has 10 matchups left on the fantasy calendar, including the playoffs. Seven of those 10 are against teams in the bottom half in fantasy points allowed to receivers, including three matchups against the Bills and Lions, both in the bottom three. He has a potentially juicy playoff schedule against Detroit (Round 1) and Washington (Round 2) before facing the Jets in a potential championship round.
The game script has also been lethal for Jefferson. Minnesota always wants to run the ball and control the clock, but this year the Vikings have taken it to an extreme. Despite a banged-up running back group, Minnesota has run the ball more than any other team and leads the league in passes attempted per game. The offense hasn’t been very good, but they don’t need to be with how the Vikings’ defense and special teams units are dominating games.
That lack of opportunity won’t keep up forever. The Vikings are bound to find themselves in some situations where they have to air the ball out; upcoming games against fellow playoff contenders will certainly test them. I’m willing to bet these Minnesota pass catchers will see an uptick in volume going forward.
Fantasy Verdict
Run, don’t walk, to your nearest Justin Jefferson owner. The game is about to swing strongly in his favor, so you should try to capitalize on his rough weeks by buying low on the PPR WR28. It’s easy to see a world where Jefferson plays like a WR1 down the stretch and catapults you to the playoffs.
