If you’re a Derrick Henry fantasy owner, uncertain times are a rare thing. But the 32-year-old superstar has put up back-to-back clunkers, which has been hard on Henry and his fantasy managers. Is this the time to float a buy-low offer for him? Or is it best to stay away?
Year-to-Date Production
Out of the gate, Derrick Henry was elite. He finished as the overall PPR RB1 in Week 1, piling up 144 rushing yards and three scores. King Henry continued his momentum by finishing as RB6 in Week 2 and RB4 in Week 3. It felt like we were in for another season of vintage Derrick Henry, a seemingly impossible feat given his age and workload history.
But things changed in Week 4. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson suffered an ankle sprain and has been sidelined ever since. Henry put up a solid performance, scoring 15.9 PPR points, and looked fine with Snoop Huntley at QB. He followed that up with a big game against the Falcons in Week 5, giving some hope that Henry was QB-proof. But now the wheels have come off. In Week 6 against the Browns, Henry had 17 carries for 58 yards and caught one pass for two yards, which was hardly the kind of efficiency we are used to. It got worse against the Bengals, too. Henry again had 17 carries for 45 yards and only one catch. That’s not the RB1 production we expect from Henry.
With Lamar’s return on the horizon, the worst may be over for Henry. But will his outlook change?
Rest of Season Outlook
The good news and the bad news for Henry is the schedule. In four of the next five weeks, the Ravens face a below-average run defense. Assuming Jackson can return for Week 8, Henry gets a cake stretch to rebuild his value, and will surely be putting up some big weeks before the Week 13 bye.
The problem is how things look after the bye week. Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati are all top-11 defenses in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Assuming you play in a standard league where the playoffs start in Week 15, he faces three straight tough divisional battles in the playoffs. Cleveland and Cincinnati, who just shut him down the past two weeks, would his matchup in the fantasy semifinals and finals.
It’s entirely possible that Henry returns to being matchup-proof with Jackson back in the lineup, but I’m not trusting it here. Unless you can float an absolute lowball at Henry’s manager, I’d stay away; an RB1 with that tough of a schedule is a bad bet come playoff time. It’s best to stand pat on a Henry trade unless you get him cheap.
