We know that Nico Collins is essentially a perennial WR1 when it comes to fantasy football, and he’s undoubtedly been the Texans’ top target for a couple of years now. However, there’s a new face in town who just scored his first touchdown for Houston last week, while another known talent only just returned from injury for the first time in nearly two years. This team’s group of pass-catching talent has become crowded very quickly.
After a disappointing performance last game, has a window to buy low on Collins in fantasy football opened ahead of Week 8?
Should you buy low on Nico Collins in fantasy?
Design an alpha wideout in a laboratory and you’ll probably wind up with something resembling Nico Collins. The Texans’ star demands defensive attention at 6-foot-4 and 222 pounds, presenting a mismatch on just about every route he runs. He’s largely clinical with those routes, too, especially in the intermediate and deep areas of the field. He’s one of the best field-stretchers in the NFL thanks to his impressive speed, even despite his stature, and he’s consistently shown an ability to command targets at an elite level. Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged 7.8 targets per game with a 22.9% target share that grades out in the 86th percentile (all stats per FantasyPointsData).
Collins is quite effective with those opportunities. He averages 16.06 PPR points over this same sample with 76.6 receiving yards per game and a 2.60 YPRR that ranks seventh among 119 qualified wideouts. We know who he is, which is why last week’s performance surely frustrated fantasy managers. Against the Giants, a team that’s struggled against receivers this season, he caught just two of his five targets for a measly six yards. The 2.6 PPR points he produced were the fewest of his season and marked his third consecutive finish outside the top-36 receivers on the week.
That performance just so happened to coincide with a couple of other factors. For starters, Marvin Harrison Jr. – a former first-round pick acquired via trade – caught his first touchdown of his two-week tenure with the Texans from C.J. Stroud, who was his college quarterback at Ohio State. Tank Dell, who last played in December 2024, returned from the devastating knee injury that sidelined him for so long. And of course, Jaylin Noel has also garnered acclaim from many in the fantasy community, ranking second on the team in receiving yardage despite a limited role (he did suffer a turf toe-related injury in Week 7, so his status is TBD moving forward).
There’s probably some worry about Collins’ role moving forward in an offense that became very crowded in such rapid fashion. Personally, I also have a couple shares of him in my own leagues – so I’m admittedly biased – but the move might be to buy on Collins now given the window that may be opening. After three disappointing weeks since returning from injury, the managers who have him may be growing a little bit impatient. Records are beginning to solidify and every single win matters more at this stage of the game with the fantasy regular season roughly halfway over. It’s been a month or so since Collins last delivered high-end value in lineups, and with the influx of other pass-catching talent, there’s definitely chatter that he’ll be negatively impacted by Harrison Jr., Dell and the rest.
Take a step back and look at the numbers, though. Collins has been an elite lead option in this offense for quite some time now. He’s getting paid more than anyone else in the offense. Perhaps most importantly, he’s clearly still the best talent here. He’s a top-10 wideout in the NFL, and at absolute worst even in haters’ rankings, he slides to 15th or so. He’s more than proven himself time and again, and he’s shown infinitely more than any of his teammates. Harrison Jr. just got traded by the organization that took him early, and the historic trend indicates those players don’t work out. Dell is coming off a major injury and may not ever return to the form of his prior fantasy-relevant seasons. Dalton Schultz will have a role, but clearly isn’t the same level of contributor to an offense.
Is there more competition for targets? Sure, but none of that comp comes near the level of elite player that Collins is. He’s never been a PPR merchant by any means either, never really seeing the kind of consistent 10+ targets that some other guys need to produce WR1-caliber numbers. With his deep-ball prowess and red-zone threat, he’s bound to get back to producing. The Texans are on a bye in Week 8, which opens up further opportunities as far as a buy-low window goes in fantasy. If the manager with him is frustrated or desperate, make an offer since you may be able to get a top asset with a proven history of production for pennies on the dollar.
