For the first time in 13 months, boxing superstar Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is returning against Christian Mbilli for the WBC Super Middleweight Championship. This is Mbilli’s first time defending the WBC Super Middleweight title since being elevated to champion in January. This card begins at 1:00 p.m. ET, with the Main Event ring walks expected at 4:30 p.m. ET on DAZN.
Check out my best bet below for today’s boxing fight between Canelo Alvarez vs. Christian Mbilli.
Canelo Alvarez by Decision or Technical Decision (-135)
This is Canelo’s 69th professional boxing match, as he has a record of 63-3-2 with 39 knockouts. Canelo lost to Terence Crawford in his previous bout, which took place in September 2025. That defeat marked Canelo’s first loss since May 2022, breaking his previous six-fight winning streak from September 2022 to May 2025. Canelo’s last win came in May 2025 against William Scull. He is trying to avoid suffering his second consecutive loss for the first time in his storied boxing career.
Canelo faces one of his toughest opponents to date in Mbilli. Mbilli, who represents France, Cameroon, and Canada, is 29-0-1 with 24 career knockouts. His last fight against Lester Martinez was on the undercard of Canelo vs. Crawford. Mbilli had a draw against Martinez but started his career 29-0 before that. His most recent win came in June 2025 against Maciej Sulecki.
According to BoxRec, Mbilli is one inch taller (5’8.5″ vs. 5’7.5″) while possessing a reach advantage (72″ vs. 70.5″). In this fight on DraftKings Sportsbook, Canelo is a -330 favorite, while Mbilli is a +250 underdog. The over/under is set at 10.5 rounds, with the over at -475 and the under at +300. Canelo is also -135 to win by decision and is +350 by knockout.
Canelo has the fifth-best plus/minus (13.7) and fourth-best connect percentage (35%) among the current top pound-for-pound fighters on CompuBox. Canelo is also in the top tier in opponent total-connect percentage (21.3%) and power-connect percentage (44.9%). Although Canelo is coming off a loss, he is still one of the best boxers in the world and has the tools to beat Mbilli if he is more active and aggressive. Canelo is at his best when he has time to set a comfortable pace while showing elite defense. Mbilli has a ton of upside but hasn’t shown it on a big stage like this. Canelo’s previous six wins have come by decision. With that in mind, I’m backing Canelo to win by decision at -135 in this fight.
