Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown ran Georgia ragged, then spent the following Saturday trying to survive LSU’s rush. Coach Alex Golesh has a wonderfully difficult runner to defend and an offense that too often strands him in dreadful passing situations. LSU sacked the Tigers seven times. Golesh takes Brown to Oxford needing his blockers to let him play some football before another rusher arrives. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Ole Miss Rebels and the Auburn Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Ole Miss vs. Auburn prediction, preview
Golesh traced the LSU failure to small gains on early runs and inadequate help against edge rushers. Auburn converted five of 16 third downs and finished with 66 net rushing yards, including the sack losses. Brown can escape, but he can’t salvage every possession after his blockers lose. Golesh has discussed involving backs and tight ends in protection; even at the cost of a receiving option, Auburn needs to give Brown time to find somebody.
Brown rushed for 115 yards on 26 carries at Georgia, with running back Jeremiah Cobb contributing 61. The Tigers drove 75, 64 and 76 yards for touchdowns; receiver Chas Nimrod caught six passes for 60 yards and a score. Brown sustained that offense despite being sacked five times. With Ole Miss coming off an afternoon allowing Texas to rush for 207 yards, Brown and Cobb have a front they can plausibly attack together.
Auburn’s tackling makes the opposite passing matchup inviting. After allowing LSU to throw for 388 yards, the Tigers face Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss with several receivers who hurt Texas. Wideout Deuce Alexander caught eight passes for 87 yards, tight end Caleb Odom gained 59, and receiver Horatio Fields scored from six and 27 yards. Golesh criticized how quick LSU completions became damaging gains. His defenders have to finish those tackles against this group.
Chambliss has his own carelessness to repair. He completed just 25 of 52 throws at Texas and tossed three interceptions, wasting possessions around touchdown drives of 80 and 71 yards. Ole Miss’ defenders contributed another score. Chambliss should find receivers against Auburn; coach Pete Golding still needs him to throw accurately enough to establish a comfortable lead.
Auburn vs. Ole Miss pick, best bet
Golding also loses running back Kewan Lacy to injury. Fellow back Makhi Frazier rushed for 101 yards against Missouri, then gained 47 on six carries at Texas, 34 on one attempt. Frazier has earned a larger role; Golding now needs him to advance the handoffs that don’t end in a breakaway. Chambliss already spent too much of last Saturday throwing from unhelpful downs.
I favor Ole Miss through Chambliss and those receivers, with Auburn’s protection leaving real danger in the underdog bet. The Tigers have allowed 12 sacks over their last two games. Brown still scored through Georgia’s pressure, though, and Golding must contain his running while rebuilding the Rebels’ own backfield. I’ll take 11.5 with a quarterback who has already carried full scoring possessions against a formidable rush.
Best bet: Auburn +11.5 (-110).
Projected score: Ole Miss 31, Auburn 23.
Best Bet: Auburn +11.5 (-110) at Ole Miss
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