We’re two games into the World Series and there’s been no shortage of drama.
In Game 1, the Brewers thought they’d secured a victory with a 4-6-3 double play; however, an umpire review gave the Rays one final at-bat, despite the fact the fireworks had already covered American Family Field in a thin layer of smoke.
In Game 2, it was #SwingGate, as first base umpire James Hoye rung up Yandy Diaz for the contest’s final out on a full-count check swing with the tying run at third base.
Regardless of where you stand on either call, the Brewers now head to Florida for Game 3 with a commanding 2-0 series lead. Heck, Milwaukee’s only lost one time this whole postseason. Needless to say, the Rays’ backs are up against the wall.
Tampa is a -118 moneyline favorite on Monday night on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and this tilt is slated to get going just past 8:00 p.m. ET. Let’s preview it and make a couple picks.
Rays vs. Brewers pick, best bets today
- Brewers ML (-102): While Freddy Peralta’s velocity is up in the postseason, a 1.71 K/BB ratio and a 5.25 SIERA suggest that he’s not been nearly as good as his ERA or his ALCS MVP award suggest. I think the Brewers can get to their former teammate and that, conversely, the Rays will struggle against the left-handed Robert Gasser and Milwaukee’s super-powered bullpen. Tampa had a 90 wRC+ and a league-worst .116 ISO against LHPs during the regular season.
- William Contreras or Yandy Diaz 2+ Either Batter Hits (+100): Contreras is hitting .395 with a 210 wRC+ so far in the postseason. Meanwhile, Diaz is one of the lone Rays who can do damage off a southpaw. In fact, Diaz is a career .300 hitter of LHPs.
Rays vs. Brewers prediction, preview
The clear edge that the Rays possessed in this series was their starting pitching depth, and they’ll need that to shine now more than ever. Ironically, one of the reasons that gap exists between Tampa and Milwaukee, is that the Brewers traded away Freddy Peralta this past offseason. After another trade from the Mets to the Rays at the deadline, the reigning ALCS MVP will now square-off with the organization he called home from 2016 to 2025. How’s the for a juicy storyline heading into Game 3?
Even without mentioning all the transactions, it’s been an odd year for Peralta. The RHP’s 4.42 ERA during the regular season was his highest since his sophomore campaign, and a career-low 21.4% strikeout rate didn’t exactly inspire any “he was just a little unlucky” takes. Poor fortune certainly isn’t a factor anymore, either. Peralta’s maintained a microscopic 1.08 ERA over 16.2 innings in the playoffs for the Rays, though a 5.25 SIERA tells a much different tale. The 30-year-old might be throwing harder than ever, but his 17.4% strikeout rate and 1.71 K/BB ratio are massive red flags, as are unsustainably high marks in strand rate (96.8%) and opponent BABIP (.229). You can’t argue with Peralta’s raw results, but when projecting forward, I don’t have a ton of confidence that this hot streak can continue.
Toeing the rubber opposite Peralta will be Robert Gasser, who is directly on the heels of throwing five scoreless innings versus the mighty Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLCS. Like Peralta, Gasser’s underlying metrics are hilarious — as is often the case with small samples. Across nine postseason innings, the left-hander’s registered a 100% strand rate and a .185 opponent BABIP. Gasser’s also posted a 51.9% fly ball rate. Therein lies the intrigue for the Rays. If there’s been a knock on Gasser throughout his brief time at the MLB level, it’s been his propensity to give up the long ball.
However, whether or not Tampa Bay can take advantage of this weakness is anyone’s guess. Yes, the Rays employ the sweet-swinging Junior Caminero, but on the whole, this is a lineup that has struggled with left-handed pitching all year long. Tampa possessed a 110 wRC+ and a .157 ISO against right-handers throughout the regular season. Versus southpaws? Those figures dropped to a 90 wRC+ and a .116 ISO — the lowest mark in baseball by a considerable margin. It’s really as simple as getting Jonathan Aranda and Liam Hicks out of their preferred split. For a roster that lacks top-end hitting talent, downgrading those two key bats is a massive blow.
Let’s also not forget that what’s behind Gasser matters, too. Milwaukee’s bullpen sports an eye-popping 1.24 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in the postseason. Aaron Ashby, another LHP, has already thrown 3.1 scoreless innings in the World Series with six strikeouts. That’s not mentioning Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, DL Hall and JoJo Romero, either. Coming out of an off-day, I have no doubts that Pat Murphy will turn things over to his super-powered bullpen at the first sign for trouble for Gasser. That’s bad news for the Rays offense.
