The Milwaukee Brewers are tied for the league-league with 55 regular season wins at American Family Field, and that home field advantage continued into the playoffs, as the Brewers won all four games in the NLDS and NLCS. On Friday, the train kept chugging along with a 3-2 win in Game 1. The following game, things began ominously as Tampa Bay came out swinging and plated four runs in the first inning. However, the Brewers chipped away and scored five unanswered runs to go up 2-0 in the series.
Now, the Rays get to show their home field dominance in Game 3. Tampa Bay was tied with Milwaukee with 55 victories at home during the regular season, and the Rays have only lost one home game in the postseason to this point — Game 1 of the ALCS against Cleveland.
This is a pivotal game for Tampa Bay because only three teams have forced a Game 7 after trailing 3-0 in a postseason series. Only the 2004 Boston Red Sox were able to win four straight.
Milwaukee is a slight road underdog with -102 money line odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tampa Bay is a -118 favorite on the money line, with the game total set at 7 runs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $60K Slugfest [$20K to 1st] (MIL @ TB).
Captain’s Picks
Robert Gasser ($15,600 CP) – The regular season numbers aren’t great for Gasser, as the FIP was 4.23 with a 14.7 K-BB%. In nine postseason innings, his FIP is 4.21 with a 10.8 K-BB%. Over his last eight starts, Gasser allowed two earned runs only once, while surrendering either one or zero runs in the rest of those outings. Furthermore, he put up double-digit FPTS in all with two over 20 FPTS. Against the vaunted Dodgers offense, Gasser went five innings, walked one, struck out three and did not allow an earned run on three hits. This is a favorable matchup for Gasser, as Tampa Bay was dead-last in ISO, 27th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
UTIL Plays
Sal Frelick ($4,600) – Frelick isn’t much of a threat to launch one over the fence, but he rarely strikes out and has some speed to wreak havoc on the base paths. In seven postseason games (27 plate appearances), Frelick has one home run, four runs, three RBI and three stolen bases. The walk rate is 14.8% and the strikeout rate is only 11.1%. He’s put up fantasy goodies in all of those contests with three in double-digits.
Christian Yelich ($7,400) – In nine playoff games, Yelich put up double-digit FPTS six times. The power is lacking, but Yelich contributed a double, a triple, four RBI, three walks and three stolen bases. Yelich bats third in the lineup for a reason, and he’s worth a shot here.
Junior Caminero ($9,800) – Caminero is the heart and soul of the Rays offense, as he’s belted 40+ home runs in each of the last two seasons. I’m not expecting many runs from Tampa Bay in this one, but think Caminero takes one for a ride. Against left-handed pitching, Caminero had a 152 wRC+ with a .204 ISO and 13.8% strikeout rate during the regular season. At home, his wRC+ was 154 with a .279 ISO.
Fades
Freddy Peralta ($11,400) – It took some time for Peralta to get comfortable in Milwaukee and the Brewers coaching staff to work its magic, but it’s been quite the ride since. That said, while mechanical tweaks and pitch mix changes have been successful, Peralta has also been fortunate with a low BABIP and high strand rate. After watching the Brewers frustrate the vaunted Dodgers pitching staff, I think Peralta comes back down to earth a bit.
