The Milwaukee Brewers held serve, winning both of their first two home games of this World Series to open up a 2-0 lead over the Tampa Bay Rays. However, the series doesn’t start until the road team wins a game, and with the next three games being played in Tampa, the Rays have an opportunity to get themselves back in the series.
First pitch in Game 3 is set for 8 p.m. ET tonight. It’s a must-win for Tampa Bay, as no team has come back from a 2-0 deficit since 1996 and no team has ever even forced a Game 6 after going down 3-0.
The Rays are -118 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to take tonight’s game behind Freddy Peralta, whose late-season resurgence became one of the stories of the season. Milwaukee is -102 on the Moneyline with rookie Robert Gasser set to crest the hill.
Below, I’ll break down my favorite prop bets from tonight’s pivotal contest, focusing on one player from each team.
Brewers at Rays Best Prop Bets Tonight for Monday 10/26/26
Freddy Peralta 1 or Fewer Earned Runs Allowed (-112)
Peralta ended the regular season by allowing one or fewer earned runs in each of his final six starts of the season, finishing with a 0.79 ERA in that span and collecting the September AL Pitcher of the Month award. He’s carried that strong form over into the postseason, recording a 1.08 ERA across four appearances (three starts) and being named ALCS MVP for the 12.0 innings of nine-hit, one-run ball he produced. -112 odds feels like tremendous value for a guy who hasn’t given up multiple earned runs in any of his last 10 appearances, especially one who finished fifth in Cy Young Award voting just last season.
Of course, the Brewers have a history of ending opponents’ hot streaks, as they did to Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2 of the NLCS, but offense just tends to be lower in the playoffs in general. Milwaukee has been the best offensive team so far this postseason overall, but it averaged 4.9 runs per game during the regular season and just 4.2 so far these playoffs, so despite getting to both Nick Martinez and Drew Rasmussen for multiple runs, there’s no guarantee it’ll do that against Peralta. The Brewers recorded an OPS 77 points lower on the road during the regular season, and Peralta allowed one or fewer earned runs in three of his four regular-season home starts at Tropicana Field.
William Contreras 2+ Hits (+274)
Contreras has been Milwaukee’s best hitter these playoffs, posting a 1.135 OPS, and he’s had multiple hits in five of his last eight games, including each of the first two contests in this World Series. Given that the Brewers have won both games by one run each, Contreras’ RBI singles in the first inning of each game ultimately proved to be the difference. Contreras finished with a top-decile squared-up rate during the regular season and batted .304 over his final 35 games, so it’s not like his seeing the ball well is new. +274 is pretty good value.
Part of that is value is a function of how well Peralta has pitched, but Martinez and Rasmussen aren’t slouches either, and Contreras combined for three hits against them in the first two games of this series. In fact, Peralta allowed a higher xBA (.234) than Rasmussen (.227), and Contreras will surely be even more used to Rays star reliever Kevin Kelly (whom he singled off of in Game 1) if they face off for a third time. To be fair, Contreras did a poor job against the right-handed four-seamers that Peralta loves to throw during the regular season, but some of that was luck that could be due for normalization (.241 xBA vs. .193 actual).
