Packers running back Josh Jacobs is back, quarterback Jordan Love is firing over defenses’ heads, and Detroit quarterback Jared Goff brings 12 touchdowns without an interception into Ford Field. I’m calling this the game of the week. Lions head coach Dan Campbell gets a rested team after Green Bay swept Detroit last season, with both offenses equipped to make this a wonderfully stressful afternoon. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Lions vs. Packers prediction, preview
Love’s dragon den of outside receivers, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, have scorched defenses for 1,039 yards and nine touchdowns. Golden dropped two scoring chances against Dallas, then kept asking for the ball and finished with six catches for 104 yards. Watson averages 3.26 yards per route against zone, which Detroit plays on 78% of dropbacks. The Lions have conceded 23 completions of at least 20 yards. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has every reason to keep attacking downfield.
Detroit can hit back before those routes unfold. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson has 32 pressures, and defensive tackle Alim McNeill leads interior defenders with 23. Love has averaged a blistering 10.6 yards per attempt under pressure over his last two games, although Chicago and Dallas reached him later than his first four opponents did. Detroit generates quick pressure at the league’s second-highest rate. Love will have to release the ball sooner.
Love targeted tight end Tucker Kraft an average of 4.0 yards downfield last week. Kraft has drawn seven targets per game over the past month, and Detroit has conceded nine touchdowns to tight ends. Returning Lions safety Brian Branch can challenge him and muddy Love’s reads, although his workload remains uncertain after an Achilles tear. Jacobs’ initial workload is unsettled, but he ran for 13 touchdowns last season and gets a defense that has allowed opponents to succeed in 83% of short-yardage power situations. LaFleur should call his number near the goal line.
Packers vs. Lions pick, best bet
Jahmyr Gibbs has been devastating on outside-zone runs, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Green Bay has allowed 4.9 against that concept, including 3.3 yards after contact per attempt, second-most in the league. Packers linebackers Edgerrin Cooper and Zaire Franklin are out. Gibbs can drag their replacements toward the sideline, then slice behind their pursuit. Goff should get plenty of manageable passing downs.
Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon kept Dallas guessing by changing the coverage behind similar pressure looks. His defense has allowed just 34 points during three wins. Goff has nevertheless ranked second in EPA per pass against blitzes, and tight end Sam LaPorta enters after consecutive 84- and 88-yard games. With receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown also demanding attention, Detroit can hurt linebackers who step toward Gibbs.
I expect Goff to finish plenty of what Gibbs starts, with Love answering against the more vulnerable secondary. Jacobs strengthens Green Bay’s chances of finishing their own drives, too. I’ll take the 3.5 and brace for these quarterbacks to trade punches deep into the fourth quarter.
Best bet: Packers +3.5 (-112).
Projected score: Lions 30, Packers 27.
